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By Associated PressOne survey suggests that Ralph Nader may draw Florida votes from John Kerry.
The presidential contest in Florida this year could be as tight a race as the 2000 election, according to the results of another survey that finds President Bush and Democrat John Kerry in a statistical dead heat.
The poll published Sunday found Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 44 percent, with 3 percent backing independent candidate Ralph Nader and 6 percent undecided. While the results indicate a narrow lead for Kerry, the gap is within the margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The results show that Nader potentially takes away crucial votes from the Democratic ticket, as the party claimed in 2000. In a two-way matchup, Kerry led Bush 49 percent to 44 percent in the state.
The telephone poll of 600 likely Florida voters was conducted July 15 to 19 by the independent firm Research 2000 for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and the Florida Times-Union.
A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey for several media outlets also reported a statistical dead heat between Kerry and Bush. The president drew support from 48 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Kerry. Four percent of voters were undecided, and 2 percent said they supported Nader.
The statewide poll of 625 likely voters was taken by telephone July 19 to 21 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
"Unless Bush does something to change the dynamics of the race, chances are we are headed for an identical finish to what we had in 2000," said Del Ali, who directed the Research 2000 poll. "If so, we're in for a nice, long recount."
Polls earlier this year indicated that Florida would revert this year to its underlying Republican trend during the past three decades, reflected by the re-election in 2002 of the president's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush.
But Kerry has been powered by a clear shift among independent voters, according to the Research 2000 poll. The Democrat's gain in the nation's largest swing state was also apparently bolstered by his selection of running mate John Edwards and helped by a gradual erosion of support for Bush.
The president appears to have overwhelming advantages in Florida, especially when compared with 2000, when he won the state by 537 votes after a bitter recount. Now, he is running as an incumbent commander in chief in a job-producing Sunbelt state bristling with military bases and a strong Republican organization.
Florida, the largest of the battleground states with 27 electoral votes, has voted for Republicans in every presidential campaign since 1980, except for Bill Clinton's re-election in 1996.