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JONI JAMESAlthough business groups call the proposal to boost the minimum by $1 a bad idea, no opposition has been organized.
TALLAHASSEE - From here to Miami, supporters of a Nov. 2 ballot measure to raise the minimum wage in Florida by a dollar an hour will launch their campaign today with rallies in 11 cities.
But while business groups are against it, no organized opposition has formed to defeat what is widely expected to be a popular measure.
"To defeat this is going to take around $20-million," Barney Bishop, chief lobbyist for Associated Industries of Florida, said Monday. "And then your chances of winning given the issue is about one out of four."
The Florida Retail Federation, the Florida Restaurant Association, the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Associated Industries oppose Amendment 5. They say amending the state constitution to increase the minimum wage to $6.15 an hour would stifle job growth and the economy.
Businesses are even more worried about the amendment's requirement that the minimum wage increase every year based on inflation.
Rick McAllister, president and CEO of the retail federation, said his group is still committed to launching an opposition campaign.
But McAllister won't say how much money his group hopes to raise.
"If you look at the numbers, we will lose," McAllister said. "But we don't want anybody to say, "Why didn't you tell us this would make Florida the most noncompetitive business state in the nation?"'
Republican Gov. Jeb Bush, a staunch defender of free markets and avid opponent of business regulation, has been noncommittal, robbing opponents of a popular politician who could lead the fight.
"If the minimum wage goes up, most studies indicate that fewer people will be able to get a job," Bush said late last month in Orlando. "On the other hand you want to make sure everyone makes a living wage, so the argument on either side is a compelling one."
The governor also has a higher campaign priority: re-electing his brother the president.
Private polls have showed the measure passing with 70 percent or more of the vote, supporters and opponents say.
For opponents, the timing is bad, coming in the heat of a tight presidential race that has drained millions of dollars that might otherwise be available.
The measure also is a political land mine for Republicans, who generally oppose increasing the minimum wage but don't want to risk alienating voters in an important battleground state.
The measure has been broadly embraced by Democrats, including those hoping to recruit voters for Sen. John Kerry's presidential bid. Organizers see it as a way to increase turnout among Democrats who might otherwise stay home on Election Day.
MoveOn.org, a liberal political group aimed at unseating President Bush, has donated $25,000 to Floridians for All, the political action committee that got the measure on the ballot. The measure's supporters say its presence on the ballot could increase Democratic turnout.
"If you're Karl Rove, you've got to sit back and think, "I don't want to do anything in Florida that is going to aggravate the disaffected voter because I don't want them turning out,"' said Joe Johnson, spokesman for Floridians for All, referring to the president's top political adviser.
The kickoff for the measure's campaign takes place at 10:30 a.m. rallies in Tampa, at Lykes Gaslight Park downtown, and in St. Petersburg outside Family Court at 545 First Ave. N downtown.
Organizers say grass roots campaigning, not expensive television advertising, will be the focus of their effort.
"The chamber is freaking out because democracy is now in the voters' hands and they don't like it," said Brian Kettenring, Florida organizer for ACORN, a national coalition of community organizations that helped gather signatures to get the measure on the ballot. "You'll hear the voices of minimum wage workers who need a raise."
Times staff writer Steve Bousquet contributed to this report. Joni James can be reached at 850224-7263 or jjames@sptimes.com