They revise their estimate, saying the state could save as much as $25-billion over 30 years if voters repeal the project come November.
By Associated Press
Published August 13, 2004
TALLAHASSEE - State analysts on Thursday cut in half the amount of money they think the state would save if voters killed the high-speed rail project.
They estimated the state could save as much as $25-billion over 30 years if the project were derailed, down from their original forecast last month of as much as $51-billion.
Voters in 2000 approved a ballot measure to build a high-speed train linking the state's five major urban areas. On Nov. 2, they will consider another ballot measure, championed by Gov. Jeb Bush, to repeal the project. Bush argues that the state cannot afford the train.
Under state law, a panel of analysts estimates the financial impact that citizen initiatives going before voters will have on state and local governments.
A brief statement describing the impact that is produced by the analysts, who work for the Legislature and the governor, will go on the ballot. But first it has to be approved by the state Supreme Court.
The first statement prepared by the panel would have told voters that repealing the project could save Florida between $41-billion and $52-billion over 30 years. The statement also stated the savings in per-household terms, ranging from $157 to $190 a year for three decades.
Last week, Florida's high court rejected the statement, saying it went too far in describing the financial impact by using the word "could" and measuring the impact in per-household terms.
The panel met Thursday to come up with another version.
The difference between the two forecasts is one of size.
The first estimate figured a "statewide" system of nearly 1,000 miles. But the 2000 ballot measure only required a system that links the state's five main urban areas. So the analysts scaled down their assumptions about the size of a final train network, and the new version assumes the system will run just less than 500 miles.
As implemented by state lawmakers and managed by a high-speed rail authority, the first phase of the project is to run from Orlando to Tampa-St. Petersburg.
The state would commit $75-million a year for the first leg under the plan by Fluor Bombardier, the company selected to design, build and operate the train.
The second leg, which is in the planning stages, would extend to Miami.
The cost estimate agreed to Thursday would also extend legs to Jacksonville and to the Sarasota-Bradenton area.
Thom Rumberger, a lawyer for C.C. "Doc" Dockery, the Lakeland businessman who pushed through the 2000 train proposal, said Dockery would appeal the new version to the Florida Supreme Court.
Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, who headed the repeal petition drive this summer, issued a statement predicting that the price tag, even cut in half, would still give voters "sticker shock."
"They'll realize that $25-billion would be better spent on ... building highways to ease traffic congestion and educating our children," Gallagher said.
