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Two weeks after Hurricane Charley cut a swath of destruction across west-central Florida, Pasco County's emergency managers still have an unanswered question: Where did everybody go?
More than 168,000 Pasco residents are at risk in a Category 3 Hurricane. Charley, which grew to Category 4 intensity of 145-mph winds as it slammed Florida, brought a mandatory evacuation of coastal western Pasco as well as all mobile home occupants across the county.
Pasco's dozen public shelters can accommodate 24,437 people. By 11 a.m. on Aug. 13 "things were not looking good for the home team," Emergency Management Director Michelle Baker said, noting that only 1,200 people had come to the shelters. Baker wisely made a plea on live television, which doubled the shelters' occupancy over the next two hours. Still, it meant the buildings were 90 percent empty.
The unresponsiveness has left county officials bewildered.
"If these people were sitting at home and ignoring us, that is scary," Baker told county commissioners Tuesday.
Determining where people went and when is one of the issues county emergency managers hope to clarify in the wake of Charley. Baker suggested a county or Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council survey to find out whether people left their homes, and if so, where they took shelter.
The Times welcomes readers to share the same information via letters to the editor. If residents chose to stay, explain why. If you left, tell us where you went. Send replies to 11321 U.S. 19, Port Richey, FL 34668, or e-mail to Bowen@sptimes.com or submit via the newspaper's Web site at www.sptimes.com
Baker told commissioners additional public education isn't expected to help. If residents haven't gotten the message by the time a hurricane approaches, they're not likely ever to get it. County Administrator John Gallagher speculated that the forecasting technology available to broadcast outlets meant people remained at home watching television as long as possible before deciding what to do. Conversations with his neighbors along the Pithlachascotee River lead him to believe people won't leave until they are certain they are in the hurricane's path.
As they wondered why people didn't come to public shelters, county officials also took steps to increase the available space. Typically, the county would need room to house 15 percent of the evacuees. By next year, that is expected to be nearly 32,000 spaces to accommodate 212,508 people at risk. To try to make up the 7,000-space deficit, the commission is considering a hurricane impact fee, requiring new homes in evacuation zones and all new mobile homes countywide to contribute $238.05 for shelters and $2.73 to improve evacuation routes.
The money would be used to retrofit existing public buildings into shelters. All new public schools are built to withstand hurricane-force winds and can be used as shelters, but even the Pasco County School District's aggressive building plan over the next four years will not meet the demand fully.
Additionally, an evacuation of Pasco County's flood zones is projected to take 16 hours to complete. It would take a day and a half under the likely scenario Pasco evacuated at the same time as Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.
Failing to add shelters and to make road improvements - such as adding computers and cameras to expand traffic-flow controls on U.S. 19 - has long-term implications beyond the always suggested building moratorium in portions of the county.
The new fee, still subject to public hearings and commission debate and vote, is a smart way to try to improve public safety and avoid catastrophe in the event of future hurricanes.
Of course, adding shelters is just part of the equation. The county still must persuade people to fill them.