Poll

Republican Senate race a tossup

Democrat Betty Castor is a clear favorite, but the GOP's Bill McCollum and Mel Martinez are in a dogfight, according to a new poll.

Former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor is the clear favorite in Tuesday's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, while former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum and former Housing Secretary Mel Martinez are in a dead-even fight for the Republican nomination, a new poll shows.

Castor holds a 2-to-1 lead over her closest rival, U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch of Hollywood, the St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll found.

Castor is favored by 48 percent of Democrats, Deutsch by 24 percent and Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas by 9 percent. Eighteen percent are undecided.

While Democrats rally around Castor, the top two Republicans are deadlocked, the poll found.

McCollum leads Martinez 32 percent to 30 percent, with 23 percent undecided, the poll found. House Speaker Johnnie Byrd of Plant City and Coral Gables businessman Doug Gallagher are tied at 7 percent. Four others barely register support in the poll.

The Senate candidates in both parties have struggled for months to draw voter attention from the hotly contested presidential race, and a third or more of voters have been undecided.

But the new poll suggests Castor has succeeded in winning over wavering voters, while Martinez has ridden a last-minute surge to catch McCollum.

McCollum, a former Orlando-area congressman who lost to U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in 2000, has led the crowded Republican field from the start.

But the Republican race is volatile. One in four Republican voters is undecided.

Pollster Kellyanne Conway said the results show Martinez has a broader base than McCollum, but "I still think it's too close to call."

Martinez, former housing secretary under President Bush, has momentum on his side and strong support among Hispanics, said pollster Rob Schroth. He said a high Hispanic turnout for a mayor's race in Miami-Dade County could help Martinez, who was born in Cuba.

Castor, a former University of South Florida president, enjoys such a commanding lead that it is hard to imagine her losing the nomination, Schroth said.

The poll was conducted Aug. 22-25 by the Washington polling firms of Schroth & Associates, whose political clients are Democrats, and the Polling Company, whose political clients are Republicans. The survey of 305 likely Democratic voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points. The survey of 266 likely Republican voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.

Martinez has been viewed as the White House favorite in the race, a conservative who could win a general election and draw Hispanic voters to support President Bush. His strategy has been to emphasize his ties to the president.

That worked for Carole Wilson of St. Augustine, who said TV ads showing Bush with Martinez helped her make up her mind.

"Bush likes him," Wilson said, "and I like Bush."

But Bernard Brooks, 85, who lives in a Naples retirement community, said he has voted absentee for McCollum.

"I think he has political courage, and he has strength," Brooks said, echoing themes in McCollum's TV ads.

McCollum entered the race before Martinez and began with more name recognition from his 2000 Senate run. But it's a double-edged sword.

Some voters question McCollum's electability, while Martinez's pitch as the most electable Republican in November resonated with voters like Philip Clockedile, 68, of Tampa, a retired teacher.

"My basic instinct is that I don't think McCollum can win statewide. I think Martinez has a better chance," Clockedile said. "Plus I think Martinez will probably attract more of the Latino community vote in Florida than McCollum will."

Gallagher, who has spent $6.3-million of his own money on an offbeat, TV-focused campaign, might set a record for money spent per vote. He has contrasted his businessman's resume with McCollum and Martinez, whom he calls "the M&M boys," lawyers or long-time politicians.

The poll suggests that neither McCollum nor Martinez has a strong statewide base and that the Tampa Bay area is up for grabs.

McCollum is the clear favorite in Central Florida, leads in North Florida and has a small lead in southwest Florida.

Martinez is the overwhelming choice in South Florida. The Tampa Bay region was tied in the poll with McCollum and Martinez at 34 percent each.

Men favored McCollum slightly in the poll, while women showed a slight preference for Martinez, as did Latino voters.

McCollum leads in Central Florida and among voters age 50 to 64, the so-called "junior seniors" - two groups with a higher propensity to vote.

Deutsch has been aggressively challenging Castor and lashed out at her last week during their last televised debate over her handling of former USF professor Sami Al-Arian, who has since been indicted on terrorism charges.

Thomas Murphy, 71, a Democrat from Clearwater, said he made up his mind last week to vote for Castor based solely on his disgust for Deutsch's attack ad.

"It was an extremely negative commercial," said Murphy, who retired from Buffalo nine years ago.

Democrat Leila Hipp, 88, of St. Petersburg, said Castor's views most reminded her of retiring Sen. Bob Graham. "I just think she's the person for the job," said Hipp.

Castor of Tampa leads Deutsch handily in every age bracket and in every area of the state, including Hillsborough and Pinellas, except for South Florida. That is Deutsch's home turf, and he leads Castor there, 38 percent to 29 percent. Castor holds a big lead among white voters, but she is supported by just one-third of black Democrats - who make up about a fourth of the state's 4-million registered Democrats. One-third support Deutsch, 16 percent support Penelas and 22 percent are undecided.

Deutsch said he stopped his TV ads attacking Castor over Al-Arian, but continued to accuse Castor of not fully supporting abortion rights, which she denied.

With little to distinguish the three major candidates, much of the race has focused on squabbling.

"I don't like that negative campaigning," said Renia Spanfield, 53, a Mulberry Democrat. "I don't know much about any of them, but that Alex Penelas seems like he does the least tearing down of the others."