Lost, 8 p.m. (debuts Sept. 22 on ABC) It starts with a tight shot of Party of Five alum Matthew Fox's eye, pulling back to reveal a panicky, bruised guy in a business suit stuck in a seaside forest. Like peeling an onion, Alias creator J.J. Abrams slowly reveals the unthinkable: The stalwart doctor Fox portrays is among 48 survivors of a plane crash on a Pacific island. There are hidden scandals among them: One is an alcoholic, and another is an escaped prisoner. But the biggest problem is the unseen animal in the forest waiting for them. Buzz factor: High. Stylish and packed with high-level TV effects, it's a wonderful blend of Castaway and The Village, and likely the best drama pilot developed this year. Will it survive? On a night and at a time with historically low competition, it's TV's best hope for the triumph of quality over reality TV.
Kevin Hill, 9 p.m. (debuts Sept. 29 on UPN) Taye Diggs puts his million-dollar smile to work playing a hotshot entertainment lawyer stuck raising his dead cousin's baby. Though we've seen such stories before, we've never seen them feature a slick, buppie child of the MTV/BET generation, and that makes this story shine. Buzz factor: High. Mostly because critics can't believe UPN delivered two high-quality dramas in a single season. Will it survive? Tapping UPN's strength with black viewers on a new night, it's a strong possibility.
Wife Swap, 9 p.m. (premieres Sept. 29 on ABC) A mother with four nannies and a multimillionaire husband switches places with a blue-collar mom from New Jersey who drives a school bus and chops her own wood. Watch the mousy mom face a closet filled with shoes and a dinner party packed with Manhattan snobs while the princess tries to fathom a vacuum cleaner and a coffee maker. Viewers get a twofer: a reality show that makes fun of the rich while subverting the institution of marriage. Buzz factor: High. This kind of button-pushing reality show is so hot, Fox ripped off the concept with its Trading Spouses series last month. Will it survive? One CBS executive predicted that if the swapped wives don't have sex with their new mates, the concept is doomed. But never underestimate the voyeuristic value of watching people expose their emotional guts on TV.
THE REST
Hawaii, 8 p.m. (debuts Wednesday on NBC) If you've seen NBC's endless ads for this Magnum P.I.-style cop adventure - pairing a young-blood hotshot detective from Chicago (ER's Sharif Atkins) with a world weary veteran of Hawaii's 5-0 (Aliens' Michael Biehn) - then you've caught the best bits. Packed with superficial Hawaiian touches, including a killer who offs his victims with a shark's teeth club, this show feels so thin, its scripts could be written on a cocktail napkin. Buzz factor: Middling. Never underestimate the appeal of a big, dumb, fast-paced cop show. Will it survive? Probably. But because this show features only one primary cast member who even looks like a native Hawaiian, I'm hoping it won't.
The Mountain, 9 p.m. (debuts Sept. 22 on the WB) Black sheep extreme sports dude is left control of the family ski resort business when his pigheaded grandfather dies. You can guess the rest: Passed-over brother who has run the business for years is angry, black sheep guy considers selling out to evil competitor, women characters mostly stand around and look cute. Buzz factor: Low. In today's competitive TV environment, predictability is the worst sin of all. Will it survive? When Medical Center's Chad Everett and faded star Barbara Hershey are the best-known names onscreen, you know there are problems.
Center of the Universe, 9:30 p.m. (debuts Sept. 29 on CBS) He's one of the funniest character actors on TV. So why is John Goodman slumming in a hopelessly unfunny sitcom about a likable family man with predictably oddball relatives? Buzz factor: Low. Not even this gold-plated cast - Emmy winner Jean Smart (Designing Women), Emmy winner Ed Asner (The Mary Tyler Moore Show) and Oscar winner Olympia Dukakis (Moonstruck) - can save a show in which the big joke involves a bagpipe-playing preteen son. Really. Will it survive? See previous entry.
CSI: New York, 10 p.m. (premieres Sept. 22 on CBS) CBS suits assembled this second CSI spinoff like they were reading a recipe: Take a dour, white guy hero (Gary Sinise), add an intriguing setting (New York City) and sprinkle in a quirky supporting cast that includes a drop-dead gorgeous co-worker (Providence alum Melina Kanakaredes). Stir in some improbable crimes solved by impossible forensic techniques and you have another argument for the devolution of prime time TV. Buzz factor: High. They may be forcing a square-jawed Sinise to mouth the silliest dialogue ever (my fave: "Drains are the conscience of the city"), but there's no denying the CSI juggernaut. Will it survive? Airing against NBC cop drama heavyweight Law & Order, expect a battle royal.
