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After 4 years, did Bush do what he said?

At the GOP convention in 2000, he set forth his agenda. As president, his record speaks for itself.

BILL ADAIR
Published August 29, 2004

WASHINGTON - George W. Bush stepped to a podium in Philadelphia four years ago and made lots of promises.

In his speech to the Republican National Convention, he vowed to cut rates for all taxpayers, eliminate the estate tax and "save Social Security."

He said he would protect the environment, boost military pay and provide a prescription drug plan for senior citizens. Bush mentioned the nation's bitter party politics and said he would "change the tone of Washington to one of civility and respect."

Now, as he prepares to address the Republican convention on Thursday, how has he done? Did he keep his promises?

On taxes, he accomplished his goals. He convinced Congress to cut rates, eliminate the estate tax and increase the child tax credit. He passed a Medicare drug plan and boosted military pay.

Stephen Hess, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank, said the speech provided "an exceptionally high degree of specificity" about Bush's agenda.

"Frankly, I would give him pretty high marks in terms of meeting what he said he would do," Hess said.

But Bush has made virtually no progress to improve the long-term solvency of Social Security and Medicare, and he has scaled back many environmental protections. And despite his promise to work with Democrats, relations are as bitter as ever.

PARTISANSHIP: The Senate is in gridlock over judicial nominees. The parties thwart each other with hardball tactics. Senate Republican leader Bill Frist recently broke with tradition and campaigned against Tom Daschle, his Democratic counterpart. Vice President Dick Cheney told a Democratic senator, "F--- yourself."

Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, said Bush has been more of a "divider" than the "uniter" he promised to be.

"There were plenty of Democrats who wanted to work with him," Ornstein said. But Bush "consciously opted not to."

Hess said Bush decided it was better strategy to satisfy the conservative base of the Republican Party than the Democrats.

"His policies, and to some degree the way he put them through, certainly proved to be dividing," Hess said.

Tripp Baird, director of Senate relations for the conservative Heritage Foundation, blames Democrats for being obstructionists and using inflammatory language.

"Calling the president a liar - that's common rhetoric now," Baird said.

SOCIAL SECURITY: Bush told the crowd that Republicans and Democrats should "end the politics of fear and save Social Security together." He also vowed to give younger workers an opportunity to make their own investment choices in the retirement program.

Bush did appoint a commission on the future of Social Security. It came back with options for people to make their own investment choices, a move that many Republicans say will help the program's long-term viability.

But the proposal faced considerable opposition in Congress and stalled after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and Bush has since said relatively little about Social Security.

"I think you'd have to say basically nothing has been done" on Social Security, said Bruce Bartlett, a senior fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis, a conservative think tank. "All Bush has done in the past four years is repeat those comments from time to time without actually doing anything."

Baird, of the Heritage Foundation, said that responding to the 9/11 attacks diverted Bush from focusing on Social Security and that it would be "a front-burner issue" if he is re-elected.

MEDICARE: Bush said in his speech that he would "set it on firm financial ground, and make prescription drugs available and affordable for every senior who needs them."

Last year, his big drug plan narrowly passed Congress to take effect in 2006. In the meantime, senior citizens are eligible for discount cards to reduce their drug costs.

The bill - and the way Republican leaders got it passed - was controversial.

There were questions about whether the Bush administration misled Congress by deliberately underestimating the cost. In January, the administration disclosed that the bill would cost $534-billion over 10 years, far more than the $395-billion estimate used when the legislation was being written.

Richard S. Foster, the government's chief analyst of Medicare costs, has said he was threatened with being fired if he revealed the real cost of the drug program to Congress. The Bush administration said the person who allegedly made the threat was not directed to do so and was chastised.

House GOP leaders held the voting open for three hours so they could twist arms and get enough votes to win. Rep. Nick Smith, a Republican from Michigan who is retiring from Congress, said GOP House members and other groups offered campaign money for his son, who was seeking Smith's seat, if he would vote for the bill. They threatened to campaign against his son if Smith voted no.

Bartlett said Bush has largely kept his promise to help seniors, although there will be significant limits in coverage in the full plan that takes effect in 2006.

But Bush and Congress have not put the senior health care program on "firm financial ground." The latest report on Medicare's future says Part A, the hospital insurance program, will be broke in 2019.

Medicare "clearly is in worse shape financially than it was before this legislation took effect," Bartlett said.

Ornstein said Medicare is "close to a crisis point."

TAXES: Bush said in the speech that he would take care of the poor. "On principle, those with the greatest need should receive the greatest help, so we will lower the bottom rate from 15 percent to 10 percent and double the child credit."

He succeeded in lowering the bottom rate and doubling the child credit, as he promised, but his plan didn't help the poor as much as the wealthy.

A recent report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the tax cuts have put more of the federal tax burden on the middle class instead of the wealthy. On average, the top 1 percent - people earning an average of $1.2-million per year - had their taxes cut by $78,460 this year. The poorest families had an average savings of $250.

Bush kept his promises for other tax cuts but could muster enough votes in Congress only to keep the cuts until 2010. Bush wants to extend them.

ENVIRONMENT: Bush made a brief reference to the environment in his 2000 speech. He said, "We are learning to protect the natural world around us. We will continue this progress, and we will not turn back."

But today, most environmental groups are sharply critical of his record. His administration has tried to reverse many environmental-protection laws to reduce regulations on businesses. Bush withdrew from a treaty designed to slow global warming and relaxed rules on air pollution. He struck a compromise on oil and gas drilling off Florida's coast that satisfied some environmentalists but angered others. Some environmental groups have praised his Everglades restoration plan.

Ben McNitt, senior communications director for the National Wildlife Federation, said Bush has done a good job with the Everglades plan and similar conservation efforts. But on issues such as drilling on public lands and protecting wetlands, "the administration has fallen short of its promises."

Times researcher Kitty Bennett contributed to this report.

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