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Forget all those pundits who claim reality TV has reached its peak.
This year, reality comes into its own - as the new sitcom.
Not long ago, situation comedies were the cash cows of television. Built around cookie-cutter concepts and stars who had made it as comics or actors, sitcoms were easy to create and generated hundreds of millions of dollars if sold into rerun syndication.
But in a world where The Apprentice can rescue NBC's Friends-less Thursday and American Idol can single-handedly keep Fox in the prime time game, the rules have changed. Last year, networks tried to downplay reality in their fall schedules; this fall season, they will debut the same number of unscripted reality shows as new sitcoms, a first for prime time television.
Sure, sitcoms claim a grand TV lineage, going back to I Love Lucy, The Honeymooners and even classic radio. But reality shows - defined here as unscripted series with nonactors in contrived situations - have earned their own family trees.
It's time to consider where these new forms come from, how they're structured and where they're going. Because, like it or not, one of them will likely become the next Friends or Seinfeld.
The Benefactor (ABC)Reality show type: Tycoon TV.
Star: Billionaire hothead Mark Cuban.
Concept: Egotistical mogul puts a crew of 16 nobodies through the wringer for a $1-million prize.
Lineage: Fear Factor meets The Apprentice.
Destiny: Big as Cuban's ego might be, even he must realize that no one thinks he's another Donald Trump. Expect a noisy failure.
The Complex: Malibu (Fox)Reality show type: Home makeover TV.
Star: So far, none.
Concept: Eight couples compete for the chance to renovate one of four upscale apartments; the big winner keeps profit from sales of all four units.
Lineage: Trading Spaces-style home renovation, plus Survivor's bare-knuckle competition and a sprinkle of Real World-level emotional drama.
Destiny: Complex and centered on the unsexy work of home renovation, this youth-oriented Trading Spaces may repel the young viewers it's targeting.
Renovate My Family (Fox)Reality show type: Emotional makeover TV.
Star: Dr. Phil's son, Jay McGraw.
Concept: The younger McGraw leads a team that helps families overcome their worst problems.
Lineage: A slice of the syndicated "life coaching" show Starting Over blended with the elder McGraw's "Dr. Phil Family" segments.
Destiny: Jay McGraw doesn't seem flamboyant or assertive enough to capture a Fox audience weaned on The Simpsons and The Simple Life.
Wife Swap (ABC)Reality show type: Relationship makeover TV.
Star: None.
Concept: Wildly different moms switch families.
Lineage: The switcheroo-makeover vibe of Trading Spaces combined with the class conflict of Jerry Springer and the marriage-shattering hubris of Who Wants to Marry a Multi-Millionaire?
Destiny: When it sticks to its early themes - the laziness of the wealthy and the obliviousness of working-class dads - it's oddly compelling.
The Next Great Champ (Fox)Reality show type: Boxing TV.
Star: Host and former champion boxer Oscar De La Hoya.
Concept: De La Hoya winnows a group of 12 aspiring boxers down to one, who gets a title fight.
Lineage: A direct ripoff of NBC's November show The Contender, itself a reality ripoff of producer-host Sylvester Stallone's Rocky movies.
Destiny: With loads of background on contestants, it makes you wonder: Why would viewers care about these guys' personal lives?