If the recovery from Hurricane Charley follows the same path as the recovery from Hurricane Andrew 12 years ago, then Lee County could be sitting pretty. And so could such institutions as Bank of America, Wachovia, SunTrust and Fifth Third.
That's the theory opined by veteran banking analyst Dick Bove of Hoefer & Arnett in St. Petersburg.
Billions of dollars in insurance payouts and federal and state aid are expected to flow into hurricane-ravaged areas in southwest and Central Florida in coming months, funding a massive rebuild.
"If Hurricane Andrew is used as a guide, the building may not be in those areas hit hardest by the storm," Bove wrote in a research paper last week. "Householders in the Homestead area of Dade County left in droves after Hurricane Andrew, moving to the north and Broward County. This created a building boom in that county that actually has never stopped."
Post Charley, it may take many months or years to rebuild the infrastructure and social service network in counties such as Charlotte, Hardee and Polk.
That leaves nearby Lee County as a likely recipient of displaced hurricane victims, many of them coming with insurance payouts in hand, Bove said.
The big three in Lee are the same as the big three statewide: Bank of America, Wachovia and SunTrust.
No. 4 is Cincinnati's Fifth Third Bancorp, which is gaining a big Florida foothold through its recent deal to buy Naples' First National Bankshares of Florida for $1.6-billion.
Bove, who had criticized Fifth Third for paying such a high price for FNB, finds the turn of events ironic. "Now something they overpaid drastically for may turn out to be a good buy," he said.
