Florida began bracing for another monster hurricane Tuesday as Frances strengthened into a Category 4 storm and showed signs of reaching Category 5 as early as this afternoon, forecasters said.
Current predictions have Frances making landfall near Daytona Beach about 2 p.m. Saturday, although the path and speed of the storm are far from certain. Meteorologists are urging residents from South Florida to North Carolina to prepare for the worst.
"Everyone needs to be watching this storm," said Jennifer Pralgo of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Frances was forecast to plow through the Bahamas on Thursday or Friday before hitting the U.S. mainland. Millions of coastal residents should be on guard, hurricane center director Max Mayfield said.
"A hurricane is not just a point. It's a large circulation, especially in the case of Frances," he said. "It's going to affect a very, very large area wherever it makes landfall. Everybody from Florida up to the Carolinas needs to be very, very vigilant at this time."
At 11 p.m., Frances was centered at longitude 20.8 north and latitude 67.0 west, about 270 miles east of Grand Turk Island. It had sustained winds of 140 mph.
If Frances hits Florida it would be the first time since 1950 that two major hurricanes have slammed into the state within a month, Pralgo said.
Although several days from the Atlantic Coast, Frances' top sustained winds Tuesday were almost as strong as those of Hurricane Charley as it made landfall on Aug. 13.
Forecasters said conditions are favorable for Frances to strengthen within the next 48 hours into a Category 5 storm, carrying winds of more than 155 mph. Fluctuations in intensity are likely as the eyewall regenerates, they said.
The last Category 5 storm to make landfall in the U.S. was Hurricane Andrew, which slammed into southern Miami-Dade County in 1992. Only two others - one that ripped into the Keys in 1935, and Camille in 1969 - have landed in the U.S. since 1900, according to the hurricane center.
Some meteorologists liken a hurricane to a block of wood traveling through a river of air. Many factors in the atmosphere help determine where the storm will go.
In Frances' case, a high pressure system sitting over the Atlantic has helped keep the storm on a westerly path, preventing a northern turn. Meteorologists are watching a low pressure system over the southeastern United States to see if it weakens that high pressure ridge, allowing Frances to take a more northwesterly track.
The track could quickly change, and residents in Tampa Bay should be prepared, said Rick Davis, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
"There's still some uncertainty about the long-range track," Davis said. "The Tampa Bay area could still feel the effects of Hurricane Frances."
If Frances follows its projected path, Tampa Bay likely would receive only minor winds and rains, Davis said. But if the storm lands south of Jacksonville, Tampa Bay could experience tropical storm weather or worse, Davis said.
The prospect of another powerful hurricane had people in South Florida stocking up on food and water and buying plywood and hardware to fortify their homes.
Much of Florida is still trying to recover from the devastation of Hurricane Charley just weeks ago.
"I'd like to get through with this one first before we start the next one," said C.W. Blosser, 37, a paramedic who rode out Charley in a hurricane shelter in rural Arcadia.
"If it comes here, I'm going to fly my family to North Dakota or something like that. I don't know anybody in North Dakota and never heard anything bad happening in North Dakota, so it must be a good place."
Plywood, gas cans, chain saws, tarps and other hurricane-preparation items were "flying off the shelves" in Home Depot stores along the southeastern U.S. coast, company spokesman Don Harrison said. The company trucked in more supplies, but generators were scarce.
State officials worried about finding hotel rooms and shelters for people who may need to evacuate. Many hotel rooms in the southern half of the state are occupied by people left homeless by Charley, or emergency workers from other states. Charley also damaged some schools and community centers that had been used as shelters.
With top sustained winds of 145 mph, Charley destroyed or heavily damaged more than 30,000 homes.
It will cost insurers an estimated $7.4-billion for damage to homes, businesses and personal possessions such as cars. It was the worst natural disaster to hit Florida since Hurricane Andrew caused $15.5-billion in insured damage.
Despite the losses from Charley, insurers should be able to weather another catastrophe without a slew of bankruptcies like those caused by Andrew, said Bob Hartwig, chief economist for the Insurance Information Institute.
U.S. insurers had more than $300-billion in reserves to pay claims as of March 2004, he said. Higher premiums since Andrew left insurers in better financial shape.
Florida has a hurricane catastrophe fund, which can provide up to $15-billion in reinsurance, or insurance for the companies themselves, to help pay for major disasters.
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.
