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Monster storm targets already weary Florida

Frances is nearly as strong and much bigger than Charley. People are getting prepared as it creeps toward the state's east coast.

Nearly half a million people began preparing for evacuation Wednesday as massive Hurricane Frances appeared headed for Florida's east coast, bringing a roughly 100-mile-wide swath of hurricane-force winds.

Gov. Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency, activated the Florida National Guard and reopened the state's emergency operations center, just three weeks after Hurricane Charley ripped across the state and left 27 dead.

"We are prepared, we will respond and we will recover," Bush said.

The National Hurricane Center late Wednesday issued a hurricane watch for roughly 300 miles of Florida coast from Florida City to Flagler Beach, meaning those areas could experience hurricane conditions within 36 hours.

Frances, a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 140 mph, is about twice the width of Hurricane Charley at landfall, meteorologists said. And unlike the fast-moving Charley, which sped across land about 20 mph, Frances is expected to move at about 7 mph, demolishing a much larger area.

"I can't emphasize enough how powerful this is," National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield said. "If there's something out there that's going to weaken it, we haven't seen it."

Frances was bearing down on the Bahamas late Wednesday and is predicted to make landfall in Florida on Saturday afternoon. It could intensify as it feeds on warm water and angles toward the East Coast.

A vast area of high pressure in the atmosphere off the Atlantic coast will determine Frances' path, Mayfield said. If it stays strong, it will push Frances on a westerly track toward Florida. If it weakens, it will let the hurricane take a more northerly course, toward Georgia or South Carolina.

Late Wednesday, forecasters said the high-pressure ridge was strengthening, suggesting a more westerly track.

At 11 p.m., Frances' center was located off the southeastern Bahamas near latitude 22.6 N and longitude 72 W, or about 585 miles east-southeast of Palm Beach. It was moving west-northwest near 14 mph, and was expected to continue that course for the next 24 hours.

For now, Tampa Bay is on the edge of the storm's projected path but could see strong tropical storm winds this weekend. If gusts reach hurricane strength, Pinellas County likely will call for a mandatory evacuation of all mobile homes, said Gary Vickers, emergency management director.

Tampa Bay is not out of the woods.

"It wouldn't take much of a shift of the track to bring it across Hillsborough and Pinellas counties," said Ernie Jillson of the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

Large-scale evacuations are planned for the east coast, and lanes on some highways may be reversed to help residents flee.

Because Frances could push tremendous ocean waves ashore in low-lying areas, about 300,000 residents in coastal areas of Palm Beach County were urged to evacuate starting at 2 p.m. today.

Another 185,000 people will be asked to leave mobile homes and barrier islands in Rockledge, about 45 miles southeast of Orlando, this afternoon.

Miami-Dade County, home to about 2.3-million people, would need about 24-36 hours to evacuate people in low-lying areas. A decision likely will be made today.

State officials are considering a shift in traditional evacuations after thousands of people fleeing Hurricane Charley three weeks ago wound up in its path. Residents were cautioned not to flee too far, too early.

"We don't want a lot of people on the highways driving long distances," said Jon Myatt of the state's emergency response team. "We don't want people to guess early and guess wrong and wind up in the wrong part of the state."

Many Tampa Bay area residents, ordered from their homes as Charley approached last month, went to Orlando, which was hit by winds in excess of 100 mph when the storm changed track. Tampa Bay was hit only by clouds and a light breeze.

Residents living inland and within the storm's projected path should hunker down in an interior room in their home, as long as the structure is sturdy, said Craig Fugate, director of the state Emergency Management Division.

"When we're talking about these major hurricanes our big concern is life safety, and that's why we focus on evacuating in the storm surge areas," Fugate said.

State emergency officials are comparing Frances to Hurricane Floyd, a large Category 4 hurricane that threw Florida residents in a panic when it swept up the entire Atlantic coastline in 1999.

Many residents waited until the last minute to evacuate. Roads and thoroughfares such as Interstate 95 were choked in traffic. State officials feared the storm could jog inward - like Hurricane Charley did - catching motorists off-guard.

"The worst thing that can happen is that people who don't plan ahead wait until the last minute, not have a hotel room reserved and try to get on the highways," Fugate said.

Trying to outrun hurricane winds can lead to deadly traffic congestion and, with a storm Frances' size, can just mean running from hurricane winds into more hurricane winds. "You can't outrun hurricane winds," Fugate said.

Many rooms in the southwestern part of the state are still filled with people left homeless by Charley, and with out-of-state emergency workers.

Kennedy Space Center, on one of Brevard County's barrier islands, announced it would close today through Sunday. The visitor complex is one of the biggest tourist attractions on Florida's east coast.

Walt Disney World, southwest of Orlando, will allow guests to reschedule upcoming vacation packages or hotel stays booked directly through Disney. Other customers should contact their travel agent.

So far, however, the theme park giant has announced no park closures and won't do so until the storm is closer to making landfall.

One of Disney's biggest concerns is its employees. The company has already spent $2.7-million helping workers displaced by the storm. And it kept Animal Kingdom, the zoo-like park, closed on the Saturday after Charley because it didn't have enough employees show up to work.

"We're going to be doing everything homeowners in Central Florida are doing," said spokeswoman Jacquee Polak. "Battening down the hatches and putting the trash receptacles indoors." Animals will all go inside.

Orlando, and many other communities, are still littered with debris from Charley. Workers rushed to collect as much as possible, fearing fallen trees, furniture and roofs would become missiles if Frances sweeps through.

"This is a time for neighbor to help neighbor," said Gov. Bush.

Cruise lines canceled trips and changed itineraries to keep ships out of Frances' path. Carnival Cruise Lines canceled a three-day cruise from Miami to the Bahamas, scheduled to depart Friday. It turned a three-day Bahamas cruise set to leave from Port Canaveral into a "cruise to nowhere," with no port calls.

The cruise line also changed itineraries for four ships at sea, and Royal Caribbean adjusted tracks of six ships.

Airlines did not cancel flights at Tampa International Airport for the weekend, but most carriers said they won't charge travelers for rebooking trips scheduled through Sunday.

No two Category 4 storms, with winds of 131-155 mph, have hit the state within weeks of each other during the last century, hurricane center meteorologist Rick Knabb said.

The last time two major hurricanes hit Florida in rapid succession was 1950. Hurricane Easy hit Tampa around Sept. 4, and Hurricane King hit Miami six weeks later, on Oct. 17.

Justo Hernandez, a top official in the state for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said a second severe storm would not exhaust FEMA's resources.

"I assure you that we are able to handle this type of emergency," Hernandez said. "It's going to be a challenge, and we know it's going to be a challenge, but we have enough people and enough money. This is what we do. We are not leaving Florida."

Hernandez said FEMA has paid out $86.4-million for temporary housing and other needs to victims of Hurricane Charley so far. More than 176,000 families have applied for assistance.

Across the Tampa Bay area and north Suncoast, the same communities that were spared Charley now are watching and waiting for Frances.

In St. Petersburg, Eckerd College administrators and students prepared to evacuate the campus by 5 p.m. today. Administrators canceled all classes and activities for today and Friday. Hillsborough County officials were waiting to make decisions. They urged residents to cover windows, trim dead tree limbs and prepare for 50-60 mph wind gusts.

Citrus County emergency officials warned residents that Hurricane Frances could be a strong Category 1 or a weak Category 2 storm if it passes beside the county Sunday morning. It's too early to call for evacuations, they said.

Times staff writers Michael Sandler, Monique Fields, Dong-Phuong Nguyen, Duane Bourne, Jorge Sanchez, Jean Heller, Joni James and Steve Huettel contributed to this report, which includes information from the Associated Press.