STILL DANGEROUS: Frances weakens to a Category 2 storm but severe winds and massive flooding are possible. The hurricane likely will hit along the nearly deserted east coast this afternoon.
By CHASE SQUIRES, JAMIE THOMPSON, SHANNON COLAVECCHIO-VAN SICKLER and TOM ZUCCO
Published September 4, 2004
A weakened Hurricane Frances bore down on Florida today as state officials stepped up warnings, residents continued to flee from harm's way and parts of the state's coastline resembled ghost towns as the Labor Day weekend began.
Downgraded to a Category 2 storm, Frances still was more than twice as large as Hurricane Charley late Friday. It was expected to make landfall this afternoon or early evening near Vero Beach, then lumber northwest across central Florida through Sunday, bringing severe winds and the potential for massive flooding.
For 2.5-million residents in the largest evacuation in state history, and for millions of others who stayed home, hopes were raised when the storm was weakened by shearing southwesterly winds.
But officials cautioned Frances could easily strengthen as it travels over warm waters off Florida's east coast.
"Although we've seen Frances weaken somewhat, the size of the hurricane has not decreased whatsoever," said Ben Nelson, state meteorologist. Some areas could feel hurricane-force winds for 12 hours, Nelson said.
The storm's forward speed also had slowed late Friday to 4 mph, increasing the likelihood of heavy flooding from torrential downpours.
Gov. Jeb Bush urged residents to keep their guard up, stressing the real possibility of destruction.
Frances' top sustained winds Friday were down to 105 mph.
Where Frances will hit remains unpredictable, and state officials urged everyone along Florida's east coast to be vigilant.
"There's a certain amount of uncertainty with storms," said Craig Fugate, state emergency management director. "If there is nothing else on my tombstone it will be: Do not look at the little skinny line. Look at the entire cone."
A deserted beach
The wind started picking up Friday along Vero Beach as the few residents who resisted mass evacuations struggled to sift through conflicting information about the storm.
Some radio and TV stations suggested Frances was no longer a monster. But virtually everyone already had fled.
Jim Moran of Vero Beach sat on wooden steps leading down to a narrow beach and ocean swells that were building by the hour. "I'm enjoying the solitude, for a while," he said, turning his face into the stiff breeze and pondering the coming days.
"I'm not going to stay much longer," Moran added. "I'm packed and ready to go."
He wasn't alone. Thousands of Florida residents fled north and west and into Georgia, filling hotel rooms and prompting emergency shelters to open.
U.S. 1, which hugs Florida's east coast, was mostly empty Friday, lined with boarded-up homes and businesses.
Most gas stations that were still open were out of gas. Most cars that ventured onto the road steered north. Mile after mile after mile, the world outside looked like a Florida that once was rather than still is.
In Brevard County, a flashing sign in Cape Canaveral flickered with an inaccurate message.
Welcome to Kennedy Space Center, it read. Please drive safely.
A hundred yards beyond the sign, the entrance was locked, the guard station deserted.
The Sea Treasure Restaurant in Edgewater, south of New Smyrna Beach, was a beacon of light in an otherwise deserted world on Friday.
While almost everything up and down the coast was closed and boarded up, the Sea Treasure offered a flounder sandwich and salad bar for $6.95, the only special for miles.
Quiet descends on Palm Beach
On a typical Friday night, CityPlace in West Palm Beach is bustling with activity. Couples wait in line at the 20-screen Muvico; diners with gourmet palates wait for tables to open up at the 78-acre entertainment complex's many restaurants. Urban hipsters saunter over to Blue Martini, hoping to see and be seen as they sip Godiva chocolate martinis.
But on this Friday night, with Hurricane Frances' outer bands beginning to dump rain and blow palm trees, CityPlace was a ghost town.
High-end stores locked their doors, and many covered the windows with plywood or shutters. Some stores closed without bothering to cover the windows, but there were no window shoppers to consider the latest jeans inside Gap or the cute dresses in White House/Black Market.
Across the Intracoastal in Palm Beach, tony Worth Avenue sat unexplored, the famously fashionable shops empty. Island residents had evacuated along with 300,000 other Palm Beach County residents, and the bridge linking West Palm Beach to Palm Beach was closed.
In Lake Worth, just a few miles south of West Palm, most businesses along Lake Avenue were closed. But a few bars vowed to stay open as long as possible. They covered the windows in plywood, but kept the front door open.
No fun on South Beach
While .5 Miami looked like it would dodge Frances' strongest winds, some Miami Beach residents were still making preparations for flooding.
"That's going to be our main problem," said Cuban-born Oscar Thomas, 54, who was shovelling sand into pillowcases to make sandbags to protect the door to his home. "I've been through several hurricanes but to be honest this is the first time I've done this. This is too close for comfort."
Some people were still drawn to the beach early Friday, but by 4 p.m. the fun was over. Beachgoers ran for cover when a squall blew in with 45-mph winds and driving rain. By late afternoon the streets were littered with palm fronds and leaves. Hotels and stores were closed everywhere.
Many flights were canceled at Miami International Airport by early afternoon, although the airport did not shut down at midday as previously announced due to Frances' slower-than-expected progress.
Most gas stations were closed after fuel supplies ran out. Hospitals also closed, except for emergencies and late-term pregnant mothers.
Flooding a concern
Forecasters compared Frances to a mule: stubborn and slow, with a powerful kick.
And unlike last month's Hurricane Charley, which crossed the state rapidly and avoided major flooding, Frances has the potential to flood out entire communities.
"In Charley we were talking inches of rain, in Frances we are talking feet of rain," said Fugate.
Frances was moving more slowly on Friday evening - about 4 mph - because the steering currents collapsed. Before, the ridge to the north was stronger and helped nudge Frances along.
On Friday, the ridge was still strong enough to keep Frances from moving too far north, but not strong enough to push it along.
"It's in a very weak area of steering," said Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center. "When the steering is weak, storms move erratically. It doesn't have a real constant rate of motion."
Frances was between two ridges Friday - one to the east nudging it slightly toward the northwest, with the ridge to the north blocking its way.
"With the opposing forces, it's not moving anywhere," Blake said.
Forecasters believe the northern ridge will rebuild and push Frances across land at about 9 mph.
They predict Frances will be a Category 3 at landfall and carry lots of rain.
But forecasters are quick to point out that they aren't good at predicting a storm's intensity at landfall. Hurricane Charley quickly strengthened from a Category 2 to a Category 4 just hours before sliding into Charlotte Harbor on Aug. 13.
Forecasters don't believe Frances will do the same. Charley was a much smaller storm, and those tend to rapidly intensify more than larger storms, Blake said. Also, he said, wind shear likely will keep eating away at Frances, making rapid intensification less likely.
"This one area is something we've never had a good handle on," Blake said. "Things happen in the inner portion, near the eye, that we don't fully understand.
"Forecasters have to rely on their gut instincts."Southernmost evacuees
With hotels booked throughout South Florida and the cancellation of a mandatory visitor evacuation, some people took refuge in an unlikely place - the Florida Keys.
Several hotels reduced their Labor Day holiday rates and waived minimum stays for the weekend to help evacuees looking for shelter.
Hurricane season usually peaks in early September, and the ninth named storm of the season formed Friday in the far eastern Atlantic. Tropical Storm Ivan was about 865 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with winds of 50 mph.
Times staff writers Tamara Lush and Alisa Ulferts contributed to this report and information from the Associated Press was used.
