The Presidential Campaign

Hurricanes roil the political waters

Charley and Frances have limited Kerry in Florida, while Bush's handling of the disasters has won praise.

Hurricanes are officially nonpartisan, but Frances and Charley have proven to be anything but apolitical. Consider what the storms have done to the candidates in America's biggest battleground state.

Today, President Bush flies into Southeast Florida to survey Frances relief efforts and tout billions of dollars in coming federal aid. He gets to act presidential, but he stands to gain politically.

Meantime, look at John Kerry's predicament. The Democratic presidential nominee essentially has been frozen out of campaigning in Florida because of Charley and Frances. No politician wants to be seen as exploiting a tragedy or appearing insensitive by staging a political rally while a state is reeling.

"It's been rough on the campaign, but it's been much rougher on Floridians. John Kerry understands that," said U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami, Kerry's Florida campaign chairman.

There's a political truism that a campaign's most valuable asset is the candidate's time, but since late July the only time Kerry spent in Florida was touring the Punta Gorda area after Hurricane Charley. In contrast, since the Democratic convention, Kerry has campaigned four times in the other main battleground, Ohio.

Charley forced the Kerry-Edwards campaign to scrub an Orlando rally, and Frances killed plans for a John Edwards campaign stop in Tampa last week.

"It hurts Kerry a lot, and it helps the president that he can come here looking presidential without looking political," said Republican consultant Bill Coletti.

President Bush also had to cancel at least two planned campaign trips, including a bus tour that would have taken him to the Tampa Bay area this week. While the overt campaigning is on hold, the president still can bring Florida promises of billions of dollars in federal relief.

Today Bush is to fly into West Palm Beach, look at relief efforts in Fort Pierce and then stop at the National Hurricane Center. The White House is asking Congress to approve $2-billion for "urgent needs" stemming from Charley and Frances, and has said it likely would seek more money later this week.

That drew criticism from Democratic U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler of West Palm Beach, who questioned why the White House had not immediately increased its aid request: "I find it deeply disturbing that President Bush may use his trip to survey the damage of Hurricane Frances as a photo opportunity - touting a $2-billion aid package that has already been promised to Florida as a result of Hurricane Charley."

The White House well remembers the criticism former President Bush received for a slow response to Hurricane Andrew in August 1992. "Where in the hell is the cavalry on this one? For God's sake, where are they," Miami-Dade emergency operations director Kate Hale said at the time.

This year state and local authorities have received strong early reviews. After Charley, a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll found 84 percent of registered voters considered the state and federal response good or excellent.

Natural disasters can be politically dicey for any candidate, with the risk of turning off voters by appearing to exploit tragedy. Which is why many politicians this week were loathe to hint that they even might mull the political implications.

"Now is not the time to focus on politics. The concern ought to be focused on the people of Florida who are suffering, and not on the political effects," said Democratic Sen. Bob Graham, echoing other elected officials.

Any major event less than two months before an election has political consequences. It's a reminder how events outside the candidates' control have the potential to upend a campaign. What's uncertain is how lasting the effects might be on the Florida presidential race, which has been close for months.

The hurricanes have not worked completely to Bush's benefit. Democrats and Republicans alike noted an immediate downside for the president: Much of the Republican National Convention was drowned out in Florida by storm coverage. In South Florida, local stations pre-empted Bush's acceptance speech for Frances coverage, which dominated the news across the state.

"Nobody noticed the convention - nobody. Everybody was watching the local, up-to-the-minute forecasts if they were watching TV at all," said Jeff Garcia, a Democratic consultant in South Florida who downplayed the political significance of Charley and Frances.

"The only guy who's going to come out of this smelling great is Jeb Bush," said Garcia. He said he doubted that would rub off much on his brother in the White House. "Jeb Bush is going to end up leaving office more popular than anyone ever imagined."

For the record, there are 55 days before Election Day and 83 days left in the hurricane season.

Times staff writer Bill Adair contributed to this report. Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com