Times staff writer Tim Sullivan spoke with national writers and analysts regarding the Bucs' chances:
By TIM SULLIVAN
Published September 12, 2004
"To me, the Bucs are one giant question mark. Jon Gruden and the front office have taken some very big bullets (John Lynch, Warren Sapp, the gaping wound that is Keenan McCardell) and remade the team in their image. I admire doing the unpopular thing.When you're faced with a salary cap crisis, it's something you have to do -- or face years of paying for being afraid of doing the hard thing. But the result of saying goodbye to some veterans and going with youth is the great unknown. The Bucs are a clear and certain No. 2 --at best -- in the NFC South behind Carolina entering the season. I love what Carolina has done with its cap, getting some quality youth, particularly on defense, and being unafraid to tell okay-but-not-great players (Jeno James, Terry Cousin) to hit the road if they get a better deal.
I think the Bucs are better on the offensive line and at running back (I'm a big Charlie Garner fan), which will help. But the real key will be how fast the defense matures."
-- Peter King, pro football writer, Sports Illustrated.
"The NFC South is the league's most balanced division, which keeps the Bucs in the race for the divisional crown. The best team is no more than three games better than the worst team.They are all in that 7-10 win category. The Bucs have to keep an older starting roster healthy and show consistency stopping the run.
The new speed on offense will help. The edge in this division is to any team that can get a sweep or two and get four or five NFC South victories."
-- John Clayton, ESPN pro football writer, analyst.
"Tampa Bay's record depends on when Jon Gruden officially begins his love affair with Chris Simms. Everyone in the league knows that Gruden wants to start Simms sooner rather than later.
The difficulty for Gruden is how to pull it off. Brad Johnson is a highly popular person in the locker room, and yanking him too soon can anger some of the players. But Simms is actually the better fit for the offense. If Simms starts near the beginning of the year, the team can go 9-7. If Gruden waits too long, they will finish 6-10. Either way the Bucs simply do not have the running game or wideouts to make the postseason."
-- Mike Freeman, columnist, Florida Times-Union.
"If change is good, the Bucs will be good. That isn't always true, however. There has been far too much turnover on this team for even a great coach like Jon Gruden to mold a winner.
Plus, there are still too many questions on offense. Is the line better? Who gets the majority of the carries? Is Brad Johnson on his way out?
The defense has lost two key leaders in Warren Sapp and John Lynch -- which is much more important than their loss from a talent standpoint -- and there's no telling if the young players can offset that.
In summation: There's not enough talent here for even Gruden to guide to a playoff berth.
-- Pete Prisco, pro football writer, CBS Sportsline.
"The Bucs are the mystery team in the division. It wouldn't surprise me if they finished first or last in the division.
There are just so many unknowns with this team because of the massive overhaul. The perimeter players on offense are much better, especially at receiver where Joey Galloway, Tim Brown and Michael Clayton are definite upgrades.
The key, as always, is the offensive line. They haven't been very good there in past years and I'm not sure their replacements are much better. On defense, I don't think they'll miss Warren Sapp or John Lynch much at all. The best two defenses in the NFC the past couple of years have been Carolina and Tampa Bay. That won't change any this season. I have great respect for the coaching ability of Jon Gruden and his staff. We're going to find out how good they are this season."
-- Jeff Duncan, Saints beat writer, New Orleans Times-Picayune.
"So when is Jon Gruden going to sign George Blanda? Or Jack Tatum? It seems like he' already brought in every other old Raider.
Throw in a bunch of other guys that are just plain old (Todd Steussie, Dave Moore and Derrick Deese) and you've got the formula for a 6-10 or 7-9 season.
Gruden can coach as evidenced by the Super Bowl victory he had with Rich McKay and Tony Dungy's players.
Now, he's got Al Davis' players. Word has it Blanda's not too mobile these days, but he can still throw downfield."
-- Pat Yasinskas, Panthers beat writer, Charlotte Observer.
