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Forecasters on Sunday had Hurricane Ivan on a reassuringly distant path from Florida's storm-weary west coast, but only in theory.
The National Hurricane Center said "considerable uncertainty" remained about where and when Ivan would hit the United States, and how strong it would be when it got there.
Yes, the thick black line on the center's predictions showed Ivan's eye hitting the Florida Panhandle late Wednesday or early Thursday. Yes, forecasters had its menacing eye passing Tampa Bay about 2 p.m. Wednesday more than 200 miles into the Gulf of Mexico.
But Rafael Mojica, a hurricane center meteorologist, pointed to the broad "cone of uncertainty" all around that line.
Ivan still could hit the U.S. Gulf Coast anywhere from the eastern tip of Louisiana to Fort Myers, he said. And any eastward movement off the projected path "could mean a close call" for Florida's west coast.
The center's probability forecasts show how uncertain the path remained.
Sunday afternoon, forecasters projected Ivan to hit just west of Panama City late Wednesday. Yet the chances of the center of the storm coming within 75 miles of the city were listed at 12 percent. There was a similar probability - 11 percent - that Ivan could come that close to Tampa Bay or Gulfport, Miss.
Two days before Hurricane Charley cut into Florida just north of Fort Myers on Aug. 13, there had been only an 8 percent chance of it coming within 75 miles of that city.
If the storm does follow its projected path, the Tampa Bay area still would feel the effects of its outer bands. Seas would be 3 to 5 feet above normal. The area would be hit with 2 to 4 inches of rain, and winds would be about 30 mph with gusts of up to 50 mph, the National Weather Service said Sunday.
"This storm is going to be extremely strong when it does hit, wherever it does hit," Deborah Hanley, a meteorologist with the state Division of Forestry, said at a briefing with Gov. Jeb Bush.
Ivan's 150 mph winds currently go out 90 miles, with tropical storm force winds extending out 175 miles.
Officials acknowledged Sunday that Ivan has proved particularly difficult to track, a factor that has whipsawed the emotions of residents.
In Pinellas, for example, some were criticizing school officials for deciding too quickly to suspend classes today. County officials, meanwhile, were feeling pressure the opposite way.
"People are concerned that we're not reacting quickly enough," said Marcia Crawley, the county spokeswoman. "We will give people plenty of time to evacuate. We want to make the very best decisions for their safety, as well as to prevent overreacting when it's not yet necessary."
Forecasters said Ivan is being guided by two systems: a high-pressure ridge on the right side of the storm and a low-pressure trough moving southeast from the Mississippi River Valley. Forecasters say the interaction between the systems is pushing the storm west, but they won't be able to develop a more certain path until it heads north after hitting the western tip of Cuba, which is expected to happen late today.
"I think once we start seeing that turn, we'll have a little more confidence in where the storm will go," Hanley said.
Bush said the storm continues to defy expectations. He asked people to remember those in the Caribbean, where more than 60 people have died from the storm.
He also noted that three more people died over the weekend from Frances: two workers hired by the state Department of Agriculture and a contractor.
"We're now at a time when people's nerves are frayed," Bush said. "They're scared for their families."
Ivan battered the Cayman Islands with 150 mph winds Sunday, flooding homes, ripping off roofs and toppling trees three stories tall as its eye thundered past just offshore.
"It's as bad as it can possibly get," Justin Uzzell, 35, said by telephone from his fifth-floor refuge in Grand Cayman. "It's a horizontal blizzard. The air is just foam."
Some people were standing on roofs to avoid floods, the hurricane center said, citing reports from ham radio operators.
In Key West, meanwhile, officials were in a more relaxed mood as forecasts had the storm about 200 miles west of the city. About half of the Keys' residents left the islands over the last few days, thought to be the largest evacuation in Monroe County history.
"We are looking good - much better," Lt. Bryan Blankenship, chief meteorologist for the U.S. Naval Station in Key West, told city officials on Sunday.
While all of the forecast models showed Key West to be out of danger, Blankenship said it still was too early to lift last week's mandatory evacuation order.
"When you have a Cat(egory) 5 sitting south of you there's no taking chances," he said. Evacuees were advised not to attempt driving home until the all-clear was officially sounded. Schools and government offices were to remain closed today and Tuesday.
For those who stayed behind, Key West was in rare form.
Locals at the Green Parrot bar just off famous Duval Street watched football, drank beer and talked about how good it was to have the island to themselves - not a tourist in sight.
In Tallahassee, Bush brushed aside any suggestion that the Keys, where there is only one route in and out, were evacuated too early.
"The fact it's possible that Monroe County won't be hit by a storm is a blessing," the governor said. "Erring on the right side of caution is the right thing to do. . . . You just can't know exactly where these storms are going to go."
He also had a warning for residents of the Panhandle: "I think today and tomorrow is their day to prepare. . . . They should make sure they have enough water, batteries and canned goods to get through what will be a significant storm."
Times staff writers David Adams and Catherine Shoichet contributed to this report, which used information from the Associated Press.