Once primarily a Florida concern, massive Hurricane Ivan now looms as an ominous danger to four states, carrying the threat of devastating wind and water damage from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle.
Still a day from landfall, Ivan's 200-mile-wide swath of hurricane-force winds have forecasters warning of a coastal storm surge of 10 to 16 feet, topped by large, battering waves.
Nearly 2-million people have evacuated coastal areas, jamming some roadways with bumper-to-bumper traffic. Florida evacuees are being urged to travel north and east to avoid hundreds of thousands fleeing the Alabama coast. An estimated 1.2-million people in metropolitan New Orleans have been warned to get out.
Forecasters, still uncertain about Ivan's exact path, continued to offer a variety of gloom and doom scenarios Tuesday for towns across the region: Devastating flooding that could submerge below-sea-level New Orleans; storm surge of 10 to 16 feet along Mobile, Ala.; tornadoes spiraling all the way to Panama City.
From the Cafe du Monde in the French Quarter to the tin-roofed shacks in Apalachicola, residents in the danger zone worried and sweated, packed photographs and wills, and pounded a final round of nails into fresh plywood before leaving home on Tuesday.
"I beg people on the coast: Do not ride this storm out," Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour said, urging people in other parts of the state to open their homes to relatives, friends and co-workers.
Words of warning
Ivan will inflict significant damage no matter where it strikes. The National Hurricane Center in Miami has posted a hurricane warning for a 300-mile band from Grand Isle in Louisiana to Apalachicola.
Late Tuesday, Ivan was about 370 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, inching toward land at 9 mph.
Two high pressure systems - one to the east and another to the west - were nudging Ivan north toward the Gulf coast.
In tracking Ivan, forecasters have consistently predicted the storm would take a more easterly path. They thought the high pressure area east of Ivan would weaken, allowing it to veer toward land. But that system did not weaken. Instead, it slowed Ivan down and forced it to take a longer, more westerly trek, delaying landfall by nearly two days.
It's already a formidable Category 4 storm with winds of about 140 mph, but forecasters think Ivan could strengthen before hitting shore. They also said it could slow down or stall over the Appalachian Mountains, raising the risk of serious flooding.
Even if Ivan makes landfall in Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana, the Florida Panhandle could take a beating from high winds, heavy rain and strong storm surge.
"Unless this thing goes to Texas, we're not going to get out of this one," said Craig Fugate, director of the state emergency management division.
Tampa Bay area communities already were feeling the effects of Ivan on Tuesday, with winds gusting up to 22 mph in the St. Petersburg/Clearwater area. Forecasters believe winds will climb to 35 mph today. Also, they warn of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge that could flood low-lying areas from St. Petersburg to Citrus County.
"People really can't ignore the fact that Ivan is out there," said Anita Treiser, marketing director for St. Petersburg. "Everyone needs to keep their eyes open."
Massive evacuation
Residents all along the Gulf coast worry about losing everything - homes, businesses and possessions - to fitful waves and winds.
About 300,000 people in the Florida Panhandle were under mandatory evacuation orders.
New Orleans and its suburb of Jefferson Parish urged their population of more than 1-million to head for higher ground, and suburban St. Charles Parish ordered its 49,000 residents to leave.
"We don't know if we're going to get a punch in the mouth or a kick in the knee. But we're going to get hit," Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard said.
The worst-case scenario for New Orleans - a direct strike by a full-strength Hurricane Ivan - could submerge much of the historic city in a stew of sewage, industrial chemicals and fire ants, and the inundation could last for weeks, experts say.
The city sits in a saucer-shaped depression that dips as much as 9 feet below sea level. It depends on a network of canals and huge pumps to keep water from accumulating inside the basin.
New Orleans is on the far western edge of the Gulf coast region threatened by Ivan.
About 750,000 more people in Florida, Mississippi and Alabama were also told to evacuate.
The casual, low-slung barrier island community along Pensacola Beach in Florida was boarded up and battened down by 5 p.m. Tuesday. Nearly all hotels were empty, all but a few businesses closed.
Sailors had taken their high-priced boats up the rivers or into the bayous to weather the storm, leaving marinas nearly empty.
Escambia County authorities ordered a mandatory evacuation for the entire island at 6 a.m. Tuesday, and promised to bar all access to the island by 6 a.m. today.
For the most part, the 4,000-some residents, many of them survivors of the last pair of hurricanes to buffet the island - Erin and Opal in 1995 - were leaving nothing to chance.
"There's just no sense in staying," said Margie Wassner. Nine years ago, Erin took of the house's roof. Sixty days later, Opal left 3 feet of water in her concrete bungalow.
"We're taking anything we think we'll need for the next eight weeks," Wassner said.
The scene was similar miles away at Panama City Beach. Local radio DJs said more people could be seen on the streets on Christmas Day. The beaches, famous for snowy sand, were nearly empty.
Even Noah's Ark, "a Christian retreat and snowbird club," was boarded up. The brown-colored building, in the shape of an ark, had plywood nailed to its windows.
A toll on fishermen
Worry and sweat mingled Tuesday along the banks of Apalachicola Bay.
In shacks up and down Patton Drive in Eastpoint, a few miles from Apalachicola, oystermen worked furiously to prepare for the storm.
One last time, they worked the tongs, pulling up all the oysters they could. Then they hauled in their salt-worn, wind-battered boats to dry land. They packed oysters into the last of the 60-pound burlap bags and hosed down the packing house floors. Then they closed their freezers and tied down their rooftops.
The busy hurricane season is proving to be a disaster for people who make a living from the ocean. Fishermen have been port-bound in the past month by Tropical Storm Bonnie, Hurricane Charley, Hurricane Frances - and now Ivan.
"Every fish we can't catch, we can't sell," said Randy Raffield, owner of Raffield Fisheries in Port St. Joe. "It's affecting us in a big way right now."
The state agriculture department estimates the storms, excluding Ivan, will cost the commercial fishing industry $4-million to $5-million, said spokesman Terence McElroy. Industry officials expect total losses of more than $10-million. The commercial fishing industry is a $171-million-a-year businesses.
The losses couldn't come at a worse time for shrimpers. They already are having a tough year as cheaper, pond-raised shrimp from Asia force prices down and threaten their livelihoods.
Across the state, officials are tallying losses from the storms.
The Florida Keys estimated that the island chain could lose between $16-million to $20-million in tourism-related sales because of Ivan by Thursday, when they're encouraging tourists to return. Already, officials said the evacuation from Hurricane Charley last month cost the Keys $35-million in tourism sales.
Additionally, state officials estimate that the storm-driven moratorium on tolls could wind up costing the highway system as much as $30-million in lost revenue. While the losses are not covered by insurance, they are not expected to slow any future road-building projects.
President Bush asked Congress for an additional $3.1-billion Tuesday to help Florida and other states recover from the battering they endured from recent hurricanes.
Waiting game
Once again, all that's left to do is wait.
In the town of Ivan, southwest of Tallahassee, the small community prepared for the storm that shares its name.
At the Ivan Assembly of God, 36-year-old pastor Bryan Maness found room amid the worry and preparation to joke about the storm with his congregation of about 100.
"I told them Sunday morning that I wanted to put Ivan on the map," he said, "but not this way."
Unless Ivan changes its track, most people in the Ivan community will stay. The regular Wednesday evening prayer service is scheduled to proceed as planned.
Times staff writers Jamie Thompson and Lucy Morgan contributed to this report, which used information from the Associated Press.
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