But money must be spent on veteran players to allow this team to take the next steps in the right direction.
By MARC TOPKIN
Published October 3, 2004
DETROIT - The fourth-place finish and the chance for a team-record 70 wins are the milestones the Devil Rays will take away from this season.
But they learned a lot more along the way.
A whirlwind season-opening trip to Japan seemed to set the tone for six months of extreme highs and brutal lows, a season in which the Rays played better than they ever have and as poorly as they often had.
A stunning midsummer 30-10 run seemed to transform their image as well as, at least briefly, the AL standings, and a second-half falloff left them disappointed, as usual, with the outcome despite the accomplishments.
Manager Lou Piniella, while frustrated by the frequent losing, said the players should celebrate the success they had in taking "a small step, but a step in the right direction."
GM Chuck LaMar said he is more convinced then ever they will get there, though it's obvious to all it will take a financial commitment from ownership, with the payroll needing to grow into the $30-million range next season and into the mid 40s after that.
"There's no question now in anybody's mind with Lou, his staff, the young players that have become stars in this league, with more young players on the way, that if we pick up the right veteran players over the next several years, the job will get done," LaMar said.
Ultimately, like every year with the Rays, the true measure of this season is how much better it makes them for the next season, how they can benefit from the positives and the negatives, and whether they will address them.
So what did they learn?
1. Improvement has to start with starting pitching.
The Rays go into the offseason confident they have three spots in their rotation covered. Unfortunately, they are the bottom three spots.
They have several pitchers they believe can handle the Nos. 3-4-5 slots: Dewon Brazelton, Doug Waechter, Mark Hendrickson, maybe Scott Kazmir, maybe Rob Bell, possibly Jorge Sosa.
What they don't have are the kind of veterans they can count on to go out and make 32-33 starts, pitch 200 innings, take the brunt of the tough matchups, teach young pitchers some tricks of the trade and set an example.
And it shows - Rays starters, through Saturday, were 46-70 and ranked 28th in the majors with a 5.41 ERA. Worse, they had pitched the fewest innings in the majors - 8562/3, just more than five a game.
"We need to add a couple veteran starters here that can stabilize things, that can be Nos. 1 and 2 for our situation," Piniella said.
Minnesota's Brad Radke, a bay-area product, could be a perfect fit, though the market will be crowded and the price may be too high. More realistic is going to be the Jon Lieber type, pitchers who can be consistent, durable and win 15 games.
2. You can't win if you can't score - more.
Piniella talks often about the need to score five runs a game to be successful in the American League.
He has a point, especially with a pitching staff that rarely dominates.
When the Rays scored five or more this season, they were 51-20. When they scored fewer than five, they were 18-70. (Heck, most nights, four runs would be good - they were 60-34 with four or more; 9-56 with fewer.)
The Rays rank among the AL bottom three in almost every key offensive category and don't really do anything - except steal bases - well. They are last in on-base percentage, 12th in home runs, 13th in average. More puzzling, despite several good left-handed hitters, they struggle against right-handed pitching, going 45-69 and hitting only .252.
Their biggest need is for a proven veteran, preferably right-handed, who can hit in the middle of the order, be productive and allow their young stars to develop without the pressure of having to produce. Better yet, getting two of them.
For a season, a good AL team needs to score about 800 runs. The Rays have 706. And they've given up 833.
3. Some of these guys are pretty good.
The Rays bring a lot of young players to the big leagues, and some are exposed rather quickly as not being ready. But one thing this season proved was the success Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford and Aubrey Huff had last season was legitimate.
All three did just about as well again this season, and in some areas even better. Baldelli hit more homers (11 to 16) and cut down his strikeouts. Crawford played better defense, threatened .300 and will lead the majors in triples and the AL in stolen bases. Huff has a chance for consecutive seasons with a .300 average, 30 homers and 100-plus RBIs.
"Those are three legitimate impact players at the major-league level," LaMar said. "They've proved they can play for any team in baseball.
4. The kids may be all right, but they're not ready yet.
B.J. Upton can makes things look so easy that some people think he's not trying. The biggest problem with Kazmir can be deciding whether to compare him with Billy Wagner or Dwight Gooden. Jorge Cantu emerged on the scene with such impact he ranks among the top three rookies in the AL in hitting.
And all three could open next season in Durham.
As much good as each has shown, all three need more development.
Upton isn't ready defensively to play shortstop, but might be advanced enough offensively to be in the lineup at third. But he needs to make some adjustments to his approach, specifically improving his .168 average against right-handers.
Kazmir has a great arm and the potential to be a future ace, but needs to pitch more to be more consistent. Cantu has shown gap power but needs to strike out less (42 in 178 plate appearances).
5. It takes money to win games, draw fans and have fun.
LaMar said the biggest thing he learned this season is that when the Rays play well, as during their 12-game winning streak, people will come, as they did for a late June Marlins series. For a week or two, the Tampa Bay area was a baseball town.
"We had hoped that when we got to that point and play that caliber baseball we would receive that support," LaMar said. "And now we know it."
The lesson in that is the Rays have to take the initiative and spend the money to make the team competitive. There is only so far they can go with a $23-million payroll that is the smallest in the majors.
"We've gotten after it pretty good," Piniella said. "We've just been short in areas, and it shows."
The way they'll get better is adding several veterans, at a total cost of around $10-million to $15-million, who make a difference.
"You win at the major-league level with quality veteran players," LaMar said. "We have a great nucleus of young players and a couple more on the way, but we've got to continue to upgrade the veteran players. Not only do they teach the young players how to play, but you win."
