After a pathetic turnout in 2000, college students are poised to be an important wild card in this presidential election.
By RON MATUS
Published October 5, 2004
[Times photo: Bob Croslin]
Christina Ruiz and Adriel Cardenas, College Republicans from the University of Central Florida, look at a map of an east Orlando neighborhood where they were canvassing for votes for President Bush last month. College students are used as foot soldiers in political campaigns to knock on doors, lick envelopes and staff phone banks. And when the rival candidate arrives in town, they wave protest signs.
ORLANDO - Say this for College Republicans: They don't fear rejection.
Members of the University of Central Florida chapter are hustling door to door in student apartment complexes in Orlando to drum up votes for President Bush.
Some of their targets are too red-eyed, hung over or pro-John Kerry to care, but the young conservatives aren't giving up.
"A lot of them right now are undecided," Adriel Cardenas, the group's recruiting chairman, said during the recent canvassing drive. "We're going to push them as hard as we can."
Surveys suggest the nation's 10-million college students are paying more attention to politics this year, in part because of 9/11 and the war in Iraq, which has touched them in ways not seen since Vietnam.
If they follow through, they could be a wild card in November.
A Harvard University survey of 1,205 students in March found 62 percent of students "definitely" planned to vote for president this year. Considering that barely a third of 18- to 24-year-olds voted in 2000, the implications are huge.
But for whom?
Despite the tie-dyed, sandal-wearing stereotype, many students consider themselves independent and moderate and have yet to form party allegiances.
It shows in the polls: Last fall, a Harvard University poll found students more supportive of Bush than the public at large, yet by March, they were leaning toward Kerry. A July followup found a bigger lead for Kerry, but also showed that 20 percent had changed their minds.
"There's a whole big pile in the middle," said Kathy Goodman of CollegeVote.org, a voter education group. "They just haven't had time to figure out where they're at, where the parties are at and where they fit."
With the country so evenly divided, the importance of every voting bloc is magnified.
In 2000, Bush took Florida by 537 votes.
There are more potential voters in a typical dorm.
* * *
If students don't vote, again, it won't be because they didn't get the hint.
New voter advocacy groups have bombarded them this election, using whatever motivational tools they think might work.
Two days ago, filmmaker Michael Moore rallied students at the University of South Florida as part of his 60-city "Slacker Uprising Tour." His goal: To rouse nonvoters who "proudly sleep till noon and who believe papers are for rolling, not reading."
Elsewhere, Voter Virgin wants new voters to go all the way, Punk Voter is mobilizing the mosh pit crowd and the League of Independent Voters, better known as the League of P---ed Off Voters, is targeting 17- to 35-year-olds in bars and pushing a book called How to Get Stupid White Men Out of Office.
Even hip-hop star P Diddy is pushing votes. His Citizen Change hopes to move young voters with celebrities, fashion and an over-the-top slogan, "Vote or Die."
"We're going to make voting cool," he said during a voter registration drive at New York University.
Far from the MTV crowd, Redeem the Vote quietly registered voters all summer at Christian concerts. The Republican National Committee trucked out Reggie the Registration Rig, an 18-wheeler that converts into a sound stage with plasma screen TVs and Xbox games.
In some states, the registration drives are making an impression.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, both swing states, more than 200,000 young people registered in the past few months, thanks to efforts by groups such as the New Voters Project.
The numbers aren't as dramatic in Florida. But hundreds of students have registered in recent weeks at UCF and the University of South Florida - campuses in the politically critical I-4 corridor.
Because students are so mobile, some election experts say they are overlooked in surveys that gauge the political moods of "likely voters."
Translation: Students are not only a swing vote. They're a stealth vote.
* * *
Then again, the student vote isn't called a sleeping giant for nothing.
According to the 2000 census, barely half of the 23.9-million citizens between 18 and 24 were registered to vote, compared to 70 percent of the population as a whole. Only 36 percent voted in the election between Bush and Al Gore.
In Gainesville, students were still snoozing in August. In the primaries, only 72 voters - of 2,025 registered - turned up at the precinct on the University of Florida campus.
Zzzzzzz.
Still, there's nothing like a presidential election to jolt infrequent voters. And some experts see a real interest among students this year.
A fall 2003 study by the University of California at Los Angeles' Higher Education Research Institute found that the percentage of freshmen who frequently discuss politics had jumped from 19.4 in 2002 to 22.5 last year - the highest level since 1993.
After years of decline, the numbers started creeping back up in 2001, said Linda Sax, the UCLA education professor who directed the survey.
Her theory: The drawn-out 2000 election made students realize how much every vote counts. The terrorist attacks and war in Iraq kept them tuned in.
At USF St. Petersburg, a dozen students interviewed at random said they plan to vote in November.
Many cited Iraq and terrorism as motivators.
"I just don't want to get bombed," said education major and Bush supporter Welty Compton, 22. "After Sept. 11 ... you can't stay on the sidelines."
Other students pointed just as strongly to the war in Iraq, with several citing a personal factor: friends in the military.
"I haven't heard from them but maybe once," said Kelcy Green, 18, a Kerry supporter. "It hits home."
* * *
Under a broiling September sun, UCF College Republicans Adriel Cardenas and Christina Ruiz hiked a predominantly Hispanic neighborhood still boarded up from recent hurricanes.
They were encouraging residents to vote by absentee ballot.
"Can President Bush count on your support?" Cardenas asked an elderly man working on his house.
"More than count on it," the man replied.
To political campaigns, college students are not just potential voters, they're foot soldiers. Bright and chipper, they knock on doors, lick envelopes and man phone banks. When their candidates are in town, they swarm to rallies. When the rival arrives, they wave protest signs.
In Orlando, Cardenas and Ruiz were working for a volunteer with the Bush-Cheney campaign. The volunteer, a former College Republican himself, met them and a handful of other College Republicans at a Panera Bread near campus, handed them lists of addresses and told them not to bog down in debates.
He expected each student to hit up to 60 homes in four hours.
Students are sweating for Kerry, too.
At USF in Tampa, the College Democrats have registered 1,200 students in the past year, targeting on-campus residents "so we can effectively show a voting bloc," said John Duddy, the group's president.
In recent weeks, they stormed dorms to energize Kerry supporters and organized a voter education fair featuring booths from a half-dozen liberal advocacy groups. Duddy also happens to host a political radio show on campus.
This year, motivation is not a problem.
The way David Brown sees it, UCF might as well have skipped the 2000 election, given the pathetic turnout.
"If we increase the turnout at all," said Brown, chairman of Students for Kerry at UCF, "it could make a big difference."
The other side is thinking exactly the same thing.
