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Ad watch

A weekly analysis of campaign commercials by President Bush and John Kerry.

Associated Press
Published October 17, 2004

DETAILS

TITLE: "Complicated Plan," by President Bush.

LENGTH: 30 seconds.

PRODUCER: Maverick Media.

AIRING: National cable networks and select local media markets.

SCRIPT

Announcer: "John Kerry and liberals in Congress have a health care plan for you. A big-government take over. $1.5-trillion. Rationing. Less access. Fewer choices. Long waits. And Washington bureaucrats, not your doctor, make final decisions on your health. So if you need treatment all you have to do is. You get the picture. John Kerry and liberals in Congress. Big government-run health care."

Bush: "I'm George W. Bush and I approve this message."

KEY IMAGES

The ad shows a bureaucratic tree of sorts, with boxes saying "Dept. of Labor," "Dept. of Insurance," "IRS," "Federal Courts" and "Employers" all linked together with lines. Bush is shown at the end.

ANALYSIS

The ad focuses entirely on Kerry's proposal and does not mention Bush's health care record. During his first term, the number of Americans without health insurance has risen to nearly 45-million in 2003 from nearly 41.3-million in January 2001. And Medicare costs are soaring even though Bush has tried to improve the system.

Bush constantly criticizes Kerry's health care plan as "government-run," arguing that Kerry's proposal would transform a system of private plans into a system reliant on government programs.

Kerry often calls for expanding the existing health insurance system that federal lawmakers receive to private citizens through tax credits and subsidies. The government would step in to help companies and insurers pay an employee's catastrophic medical costs if the firms agree to hold down premiums.

The Bush campaign argues that Kerry's plan mostly expands Medicaid. The Lewin Group, a neutral health care research company, has said that 97 percent of Americans with health insurance would keep their current plans, while about 25-million uninsured would gain coverage.

The Bush campaign uses a cost analysis of $1.5-trillion by the conservative American Enterprise Institute, which has counted Lynne Cheney, wife of Vice President Dick Cheney, as a senior fellow and their daughter, Liz Cheney, as a visiting scholar. Also, the campaign relies on opinion pieces in a few publications, including the Wall Street Journal, to back up its claims that health care would be run by the government.

Other analysts have said Kerry's plan would cost less. The Lewin Group has said it was $1.25-trillion over 10 years. Kenneth Thorpe, who teaches health policy at Emory University and was in charge of financial estimates for the health care proposals of the Clinton administration a decade ago, has pegged it at $653-billion over a decade. Bush's campaign cited Thorpe's estimate in the past when it was the only analysis available.

Kerry says he will pay for his plan by rolling back Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans.

Bush is trying to put Kerry on the defensive on a domestic issue in which the Democrat typically scores higher in public opinion polls.

* * *

DETAILS

TITLE: "Leading," by Sen. John Kerry.

LENGTH: 30 seconds.

PRODUCER: Shrum, Devine, Donilon and Squier, Knapp, Dunn.

AIRING: Ohio and other media markets.

SCRIPT

Announcer: "The George Bush attacks on John Kerry's health care plan are called "not true.' "Outright fabrications.' Listen for yourself:"

Bush ad announcer: "Rationing, less access, fewer choices, long waits."

Announcer: "Wait a minute. That's what we have now under George Bush. It's Bush that let insurance companies overrule your doctor; costs have skyrocketed. The Kerry plan lowers costs, you choose your doctor, you make medical decisions, not the government. It's time for a new direction."

Kerry: "I'm John Kerry and I approve this message."

KEY IMAGES

Headlines. Diagrams of health care structure. Bush near signs that say "Costs have skyrocketed." Doctors with patients. Kerry at a town hall meeting.

ANALYSIS

This ad is a direct response to a Bush ad released Tuesday that calls Kerry's health care plan a "big-government takeover." It shows that the Kerry campaign - with time running short - isn't going to let Bush's criticism go unanswered.

Kerry's ad uses the same visuals as Bush's - diagrams depicting the flow of bureaucracy - to say that Bush's criticism can be applied right back to him.

The ad emphasizes that Kerry's plan would give power back to individuals by repeating the word "you" - "you choose your doctor, you make medical decisions."

The ad gives Bush a dose of his own medicine. It says Bush's health care record has taken this power of choice away from the consumer and given it to insurance companies. Despite his efforts to improve Medicare, "costs have skyrocketed," the ad says.

Analysis by Liz Sidoti and Emily Fredrix, Associated Press writers.

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