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Nader loses voter support, but is a factor

Even with a fraction of the support he had in 2000, his effect on very close races like Florida's concerns both parties.

ST. PETERSBURG - This much we know: In 2000 Ralph Nader won more than 97,000 votes in the state George Bush won by 537. Nader will win votes again in Florida this election, which appears to be another dead heat.

As the maverick consumer advocate swung through Tampa Bay Thursday, many Democrats anxiously wondered whether Nader might again have a decisive effect on the Florida race.

"I haven't spoken to a single person who's voting for Nader again," said Soraya Zaumeyer, a University of South Florida senior from Tampa who backed Nader in 2000.

"He might get 10 percent of the vote he got in 2000," predicted Jay Alexander, a liberal activist from St. Petersburg, who voted for Nader last time, favored liberal Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich for president earlier this year and voted this week for John Kerry.

Ten percent? That would be nearly 10,000 Florida votes for Nader, enough to make a difference in another election squeaker.

"The mistake people make is saying, "He's not performing as well this time.' But he doesn't have to perform well to swing this state to George Bush," said David Jones, who leads TheNaderFactor.com, one of several anti-Nader organizations.

Jones, a former aide to Democratic Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, was one of several anti-Nader folks to show up at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg on Thursday to tell people that voting for Nader only helps keep Bush in the White House.

Susan Glickman, a Democratic activist from Indian Rocks Beach, handed Nader a letter from longtime Nader allies opposing his candidacy.

"I've been involved in environmental causes my whole life, and we can't afford another four years of George Bush," she told him.

"I agree. That's why I'm trying to beat him," Nader responded before disappearing through a door.

Nader insists he wants Bush out of office, and if Democrats would stop fighting him he would help in that goal. But he also wants to encourage alternatives to the two major parties and to push Kerry to embrace a more liberal agenda.

He called on Floridians to pass a ballot initiative that would raise the minimum wage in Florida and to oppose an initiative that would make it harder for citizen groups to mount ballot initiatives.

"You know how bad politics is?" he asked in an interview with the St. Petersburg Times. "That a governor of this state believes he won't lose votes by opposing an initiative to raise the minimum wage for hundreds of thousands of workers from $5.15 to $6.15 an hour. The Bushes are experts at flattering and fooling voters to vote against their own interests."

About 80 people showed up to hear Nader in St. Petersburg, though only a handful said they intended to vote for him.

"You should vote your conscience, and the things he stands for go along with my gut feelings," said USF student Aaron Watson, who said he voted for Bush in 2000.

Democrats and Republicans alike believe such voters are rare and that Nader is far more likely to peel liberal votes from Kerry. Despite Democratic efforts to keep him off ballots, he is on the ballot in 35 states, including such key swing states as Florida, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa and New Hampshire.

Most polls, including those in Florida, show him receiving about 1 percent support, but at least one survey in neck-and-neck Wisconsin shows him winning 3 percent.

"The net impact of Nader in a (close) state is to make it more possible for Bush to win the state," said Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg. "As we know from 2000, his impact is not necessarily in the state where he's strongest but simply in the states that are closest. If it's decided by a handful of states, then any votes for Nader pose a risk."

Nader is among six minor party candidates on the Florida presidential ballot, including Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik, who some see as having potential to cost Bush votes. But no one has received the attention of Nader, who in Florida is running as the Reform Party nominee.

He ran as a Green Party candidate in 2000, but Greens wouldn't have him this year. Instead, they nominated a candidate who promised only to campaign in nonswing states to ensure he did nothing to help re-elect Bush.

"Who'd have thought Bush would have been so bad. He has been really, really bad," said Kurt Gratzol, a Green Party activist in Pinellas who organized for Nader in 2000.

"God bless him. I really worked hard for him four years ago. I gave him six months of my life," Gratzol said before explaining why he's voting for Kerry: "Anybody but Bush."