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The plan by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to remove Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank is bold and historic. Whether it is ultimately good for Israelis, the Palestinians and Sharon himself is far more debatable.
On Tuesday, Israel's parliament approved the plan, a major step in returning territories Israel has occupied since the 1967 Mideast War. More hurdles remain before the first Jewish settler packs up and leaves, but the momentum is unmistakable.
Tuesday's action "is highly significant because it is a recognition on Israel's part that it cannot control the lives of Palestinians and . . . that Israel must get out of the lives of Palestinians," says Kenneth Stein, professor of Middle Eastern history at Emory University.
Withdrawal from the territories is also a step toward "Israel's normalization of relations with its Arab neighbors," Stein says.
Others say Israel must eventually negotiate with the Palestinians instead of acting unilaterally if it hopes to achieve lasting peace.
"Without an agreement that resolves the issues of borders, self-determination, refugees and Jerusalem, it won't calm the situation," says Yossi Mekelberg of London's Royal Institute of International Affairs."
In some respects, Israel's pullout from the Gaza Strip makes a great deal of sense. While Jews consider Gaza part of the biblical "Land of Israel," it does not have the same emotional or ideological pull as the West Bank, which contains some of the most sacred shrines in Judaism.
Many Israelis have long questioned the wisdom of keeping the 21 small settlements in Gaza, where 8,200 Jews are surrounded by more than a million Palestinians.
The Gaza occupation "has been very costly in terms of money, lives and reputation internationally," Stein says.
Withdrawing from Gaza and "getting rid of a million and a half Palestinians" - as one Israeli columnist put it - also defuses Israel's demographic time bomb, at least temporarily. With one of the world's highest birth rates, Arabs could outnumber Jews between the Mediterranean Sea and Jordan River by 2020. If Israel continues to occupy primarily Palestinian areas, it could be forced to choose between being a Jewish state or a democratic state, in which Palestinians have equal rights.
For their part, Palestinians in Gaza would be glad to bid farewell to the Jewish settlers, whose heavily guarded movements cause massive traffic tie-ups and other hardships for the Palestinian majority.
An Israeli pullout could also force the Palestinians to improve their self-governance and take greater responsibility for their affairs, Stein says.
But others fear that Gaza - one of the poorest, most densely populated places on Earth - could descend into lawlessness and armed conflict between radical groups like Hamas and more moderate factions. Reports that ailing Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat took a turn for the worse Wednesday adds to the uncertainty.
"Anything can happen," Mekelberg says. "Gaza can become a breeding ground for terrorists, it can be sent into civil war."
Also unclear is the future of the West Bank, home to 2.3-million Palestinians. Sharon's plan calls for withdrawal from four small settlements in the northern West Bank, leaving more than 200,000 Jews residing in areas also claimed by Palestinians.
"From the Arab perspective, the concern is that a Gaza-first withdrawal is a prelude to Israel extending its grip on the West Bank," says Steven A. Cook, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
History suggests their concerns are valid, Cook notes: Even after Israel withdrew from the Sinai Peninsula in 1982, it built settlements in other occupied territories.
For Sharon, the plan carries substantial risk, both politically and personally. Although most Israelis support disengagement, it is bitterly opposed by settlers and right-wingers. It's no small irony that parliament's vote on the plan came on the ninth anniversary of the assassination of another prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin.
"I saw some graffiti that said, "We killed Rabin and we will kill Sharon,' " Cook says, "and I absolutely take them seriously. But if it did happen, it might produce such a backlash there would be even more pressure from Israeli society to withdraw and ultimately find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."
- Susan Taylor Martin can be reached at susan@sptimes.com