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Bush: Nothing for granted

ASHWAUBENON, Wis. - On election eve four years ago, Karl Rove was so sure George W. Bush would win that he strutted through the campaign headquarters saying the Texas governor had locked up 320 electoral votes, 50 more than necessary.

This time, President Bush's chief political adviser is more circumspect. He is confident of victory, but says his doubts creep up in the middle of the night, "particularly about 3:30 in the morning."

Two days before the election, with polls showing a dead heat in key states, the Bush campaign looks like the proverbial duck: calm above the surface, paddling like mad underneath.

Bush is barnstorming through the battlegrounds - Florida today and six states on Monday - using a two-pronged strategy: Fire up the Republican base and peel off a share of the Democrats and undecideds.

There are signs Bush is pulling out all the stops to win re-election. Friday night, the Department of Transportation announced $21-million in grants for airports damaged by the summer hurricanes. The money will go to seven states, including three that are important in Tuesday's election: Florida, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

The campaign also released a TV ad showing Bush speaking to troops that had been doctored to make the crowd look larger. Alert bloggers noticed the same people appeared repeatedly in the same scene, and the campaign was forced to recall it.

As Bush was whisked from rally to rally last week, his aides were upbeat.

Aboard Air Force One, Rove was in such a good mood that he came back to the press cabin wearing a surgical mask.

"Dr. Rove is here!" he said, and pretended to transplant a reporter's "defective mental unit."

Rove, whose own mental unit is crammed with statistics about voting trends in key counties, says the latest polls and absentee voting results show promising signs for Bush.

Chief strategist Matthew Dowd, who in 2000 was skeptical of Rove's optimism, sounds confident this time.

"We think Sen. Kerry is on the defensive," Dowd said. "We feel good about things."

The Osama bin Laden tape that surfaced Friday may be just the boost Bush needed.

His aides declined to discuss the political implications of the tape, but Rove had been telling reporters all week that Bush had an advantage on terrorism. He said Tuesday, "I'm not sure, if I were sitting in the cockpit of the other campaign, I'd want this to come down to the war on terror."

That may be precisely what happened.

The new videotape is a fresh reminder that bin Laden is at large, which might sway undecided voters - especially suburban women - who are worried about another attack. Democrats hope the tape will work against Bush because it reminds voters he has not captured bin Laden.

Chuck Todd, editor of the Hotline, a political Web site, said Kerry did not seize the opportunity to remind voters Bush has failed to find bin Laden.

"Kerry has shown too much caution," Todd said. "Caution helps Bush."

Bush's stump speech last week provided nourishment for conservatives.

He blasted Kerry for criticizing the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq ("I don't see much diplomatic skill in Sen. Kerry's habit of insulting America's closest friends") and he reminded crowds that Kerry did not vote against partial-birth abortion. "I will promote a culture of life," Bush said.

He went after Kerry for supposedly saying the "heart and soul of America can be found in Hollywood." Never mind that what Kerry really said was that performers at a fundraiser expressed "the heart and soul of our country." Both campaigns have discovered the attacks and counter-attacks inspire their most passionate supporters.

It's the paradox of the home stretch: Attack me, please.

"We're really locked into a dogfight here," said Nicolle Devenish, the Bush campaign's communications director. "Ironically, at this stage, what's good for them is good for us."

Bush says he also is appealing to "discerning Democrats" and "wise independents." He promises to "make sure the poor and the indigent get good health care," which sounds like something Kerry might say.

But there were few Democrats at his rallies last week. The campaign had stacks of "Democrats for Bush" signs to give away at a rally in Saginaw, Mich., but few takers.

Both campaigns are focusing on the battleground states: Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Colorado. The timing of the announcement of $21-million in airport grants hardly could have been better for the president.

A Transportation Department spokesman said there was no political motive, and the announcement was not timed to the election.

The doctored TV ad, which was titled "Whatever It Takes," showed Bush speaking to troops in 2002. The original shot had gaps in the crowd, so an editor electronically cloned some of the soldiers to fill in the space.

Devenish said that after the campaign realized what had happened, the ad was withdrawn and re-edited. It is being aired with the original footage.

The duck is paddling madly.

The campaign normally spends about a week planning each event. But lately the rallies have been put together in just a few days. Some are a bit sloppy, like one Friday in Manchester, N.H., where Bush's personal reflections on terrorism were marred by a premature confetti drop. Others, like one in Columbus, Ohio, with California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, went off like clockwork.

Bush has found some of his largest crowds in the smallest towns.

Many big-city residents have grown weary of the frequent visits and annoyed by the traffic tie-ups caused by presidential motorcades. But people in small towns are still awed.

"President Bush is waking up in La Crosse this morning," chirped an anchor in the Wisconsin town. On Monday, the entire front page of the Tribune in Greeley, Colo., was a color photo of Bush, with the headline, "Welcome, Mr. President."

Rove said the large crowds are a testament to Bush's appeal, despite a brutal campaign.

"This country is narrowly divided and the president has been on the receiving end of 18 months of the most vicious attacks," he said.

In a prediction not delivered at 3:30 a.m., Rove said:

"In the end, the American people will see through it, and the president is going to win."