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Watching the election unfold
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As results come in tonight, here's what to watch for
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The electoral equation
About 120-million voters are expected to cast a ballot in this year's presidential election. But even if a candidate wins the majority of those votes, he would lose the presidency if he doesn't have a majority of electoral votes. The nation's founders established the Electoral College as a compromise between election for the president by Congress and election by popular vote.
Each state is allocated electors equal to its number of senators (always two) plus its number of representatives in the U.S. House. A state's congressional delegation is determined by its general population. Sates with larger populations have more representatives. A candidate needs 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win. |
Battleground states: President Bush leads in 26 states with 222 electoral votes and Sen. John Kerry is ahead in 16 states (plus Washington D.C.) with 211 electoral votes.
That leaves eight states – with 105 votes – in the position of deciding the presidency. Those states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico.
On TV: The television networks will closely track the voting in the battleground states and tally their effects on the electoral vote totals. The networks may declare winners in states based on exit poll results. With so many people voting early this year, those poll results could be skewed.
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Text by Ron Brackett and Adam C. Smith. Graphics by Amanda Raymond
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Voting issues to watch
Watch for reports of voting problems and lawsuits challenging results. Teams of lawyers, both Democratic and Republican, are poised to parachute into the state that might turn into the next Florida. Here are some of the issues that could surface: |
Florida
Questions of racial and ethnic equality in the voting process remain from the 2000 election, when many African-Americans experienced problems. Complaints also have arisen about electronic voting machines. Critics worry about computer crashes or the possibility of the system being hacked. Florida also faces lawsuits over provisional ballots and the rejection of some voter registration forms. |
Colorado
Today Colorado voters could replace the winner-take-all formula for allocating the state’s electoral votes and replace it with a proportional allocation. Polls suggest the initiative is likely to fail, but if it passes, a candidate receiving two-thirds of the state’s vote, for example, would receive only two-thirds of Colorado’s nine electoral votes. A legal challenge has been filed in federal court. |
Pennsylvania
The Justice Department has sued the state to require that overseas voters have two additional weeks to submit absentee ballots because of a delay in mailing them. Pennsylvania has five voting mechanisms: punch cards, optical scans, electronic voting machines, lever machines and paper ballots. Any potential recount could raise issues of equal protection and be complicated. |
Maine
Kerry is expected to win Maine, but Bush still might get an electoral vote there. The state splits its electoral votes partly by congressional district, and Bush may win a rural district. |
Ohio
Of Ohio’s 88 counties, 69 still use the Votomatic punch card machine that most Florida voters used in the 2000 election. That’s more than 5-million Ohio voters. Ohio also faces legal challenges to its provisional ballots rules. There is also confusion over whether poll watchers will be allowed to challenge voter eligibility. |
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Other states
Problems could also arise in Missouri, where two out of three voters use punch card ballots, and New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin and perhaps Arizona and Oregon. The reasons include potentially balky equipment, voter registration problems and recent changes in state laws and procedures.
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Election wild cards
The biggest battleground electoral prizes are Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Conventional wisdom suggests that whoever wins two out of three will win the election.
But that’s not a sure thing. Countless scenarios exist for reaching 270 electoral votes. If Bush loses Pennsylvania and Ohio, for instance, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin could save him. Winning two out of three of those Midwestern battlegrounds would put him over the top.
There also could be surprises. Hawaii (which went to Al Gore in 2000) is looking close, for example, as is Arkansas (which went to Bush in 2000). Bush also appears much stronger than expected in Michigan.
The Florida factors
Bush wants to win North Florida overwhelmingly, minimize losses in voter-rich southeast Florida and at least narrowly win the swing voter corridor between Tampa Bay and Daytona. For Kerry, it’s the reverse.
Anyone trying to follow Florida returns on county or state elections Web sites should be wary of jumping to conclusions. Tallies come in precinct by precinct, and county by county. What might look like a comfortable lead for Kerry, for instance, might reflect incomplete results that don’t yet include heavily Republican precincts.
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Who will control Congress?
The Senate
Republicans are favored to hold 49 seats to 45 for the Democrats, including the seat of Democrat-affiliated Vermont independent James Jeffords. The seats up for grabs are those held by Democrats in Florida, Louisiana and North Carolina, and Republican-held seats in Alaska, Colorado and Oklahoma.
The House
All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. It is unlikely the Republicans will lose the majority.
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Governers
Eleven states are voting for governors: Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
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 Gay marriage amendment
Eleven states are voting on constitutional amendments prohibiting same-sex marriage. Gay marriage is not legal in the states where the issue is on the ballot, but amendment supporters want to guard against future court rulings. |
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© Copyright 2003 St. Petersburg Times. All rights reserved
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