News

Election 2004

Coattails, late attacks hurt Buckhorn's chances at polls

Well-known Democrat Bob Buckhorn had lots of name recognition - but could that have pushed voters away?

By BILL VARIAN
Published November 4, 2004

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TAMPA - He outspent his opponent in the race for a Hillsborough County Commission seat nearly 2-to-1.

After serving two terms on the Tampa City Council and making a high-profile, if unsuccessful, run for mayor last year, Democrat Bob Buckhorn's name and face were familiar to local voters.

But when they counted the ballots early Wednesday morning, it was Republican Brian Blair, a former wrestler and gym owner, standing in the winner's circle in the open District 6 at-large contest.

In what could have been Buckhorn's last bid for public office, political observers and the candidate himself say he likely was outdone by the coattail effect. Strong Republican turnout in Hillsborough for the presidential and U.S. Senate races fueled a trickle-down boost for GOP candidates in local races.

But there was more.

Buckhorn weathered a barrage of last-minute attack mailers and phone calls branding him a liberal and raising a sordid allegation from his past.

"I think President Bush had bigger coattails than any of us expected," Buckhorn said. "But when someone is getting a phone call at 10 o'clock on Monday night before the election that is untrue and unwarranted and leaves us little time to respond, that might have been a factor."

Blair says he simply outworked his opponent. Was there a coattail effect? Maybe, he said.

Then again, Democrat Pat Frank beat out fellow former commissioner and Republican Chris Hart in the Clerk of the Circuit Court race.

"We just assembled a team that was very organized, that worked hard and gave a lot of effort," Blair said. "We targeted the right precincts and walked to enough houses that it just paid off."

He said he stands by the fliers and phone calls that he personally sanctioned, saying they raised legitimate issues. But he said he didn't have anything to do with some of the hardest hitting election eve salvos.

"I have no control over what anybody else does," he said.

Supporters of Blair put out several fliers and letters that began arriving in voters mailboxes late last week and continued through the weekend. They described Buckhorn as a liberal who would raise billions of dollars in new taxes. And they said he had received an endorsement from strip club owner Joe Redner and once approved the location of an adult supercenter near a school.

Buckhorn has said he would support considering raising some taxes to raise money for roads. He did not seek the endorsement from Redner, with whom he has clashed repeatedly, and as a City Council member was told by staff attorneys he had no recourse to block the adult business in question.

But what ultimately doomed his campaign may have been a last-minute recorded message left on phone voice mails. It came from a woman identifying herself as Judy Hayes.

"You know about Bob Buckhorn's vote to allow porno stores near schools and neighborhoods," the woman says. "What you don't know is he has a history of sexual harassment dating back to 1992."

It goes on to recount an allegation reported in the Tampa Tribune that year that Buckhorn had made unwanted advances to a marine patrol officer, though the phone call just says patrol officer.

The allegation surfaced the week before a primary in which Buckhorn was seeking a state House seat and some blamed it for his loss in that race. Nothing more was ever made of the allegation.

"Unfortunately in politics there are no rules and sometimes people who abandon the rules win," Buckhorn said.

Caller ID for people who received the latest calls indicated that it was placed from a number belonging to Buckhorn's employer, Dewey Square Group. Buckhorn said the consulting firm received about 50 phone calls of complaint.

Scott Paine, an associate professor of government and world affairs at the University of Tampa who also served on the city council with Buckhorn, got the message at his house about 1 p.m. Monday. He said it could have been a factor in Buckhorn's narrow defeat by about 2,400 votes.

"When a race is relatively close, you never know what was the deciding factor," Paine said. "But if you want to take the wind out from a Democrat's sails, you make them look less like a Democrat."

The phone call was received by Democrats and Republicans, but appears to have targeted homes with female voters.

Paine said Buckhorn likely faced other challenges. With high name recognition comes judgment from voters.

While on the city council in 1999, Paine said, he commissioned a poll that asked voters how both he and Buckhorn were perceived.

A sitting politician is likely to have upset some people for one decision or another, so a certain amount of animosity is to be expected. But the number of people who viewed Buckhorn unfavorably was high even allowing for that, he said. Paine recalls it being above 20 percent of those who answered.

Former Tampa Mayor Sandy Freedman, to whom Buckhorn served as a top aide before running for city council, said she thinks strong Republican turnout overall most hurt his chances.

Also, she said, Blair has no track record in public office, so he hasn't had the opportunity to offend any voters. And the GOP was making a special push for county commission seats, she said. Buckhorn has found ways to get voters riled, for reasons that run counter to the message on fliers that backed Blair, Freedman said. He frequently challenged the spending proposals of former Mayor Dick Greco, who enjoyed strong popularity. And he pushed for new rules banning lap dancing in strip clubs in efforts some viewed as grandstanding.

"I think Bob would be mayor of Tampa today if he hadn't done the lap dancing," she said.

[Last modified November 4, 2004, 00:40:23]

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