That song of yearning from the Great Depression comes to mind every time I get together with Tampa Bay area builders.
They are a lucky lot, despite their occasional griping, because they are building homes - lots of them - in a popular region of a state that remains irresistible to many people migrating from cooler climates and countries.
Like the idealized Big Rock Candy Mountain, Florida is usually free and clear of snow and sleet. And while hurricanes repeatedly caught everybody's attention this season, the threat of blowing winds is not slowing the migration to the Sunshine State.
What is a steady flow of some 900 people a day to Florida will soon increase as the bulge of baby boomers starts to retire. Of competing states, boomers still most want to retire to Florida. They will be heading here in droves for years to come.
Where to put them and others on the way lies at the heart of the stunning building boom that continues to spawn sprawling, pretty-named housing developments to the north and southeast of the fast-growing Tampa Bay area.
Consider this: In the third quarter of this year, builders moved more people into houses in the Tampa Bay area than ever before.
Who says the economy is anemic?
Not builders. Not Tony Polito. The guy who tracks regional housing data for Metrostudy, a Houston housing research firm, on Tuesday morning offered a robust outlook for the Tampa Bay area economy and home builders. The only big challenge ahead is finding enough vacant and affordable land on which to build. Polito brought builders and bankers up to speed on the area's full-steam-ahead housing market at a Gold Bank-sponsored gathering at Tampa's Palma Ceia Country Club.
You can see the housing boom yourself. Take the Suncoast Parkway, exit at State Road 54 in southern Pasco County and head east through disappearing ranch land.
Start counting the housing developments - those completed, those under construction, those putting in roads and those with only their names emblazoned on their look-alike entryways - on the north side of the road.
New housing starts along the SR 54 corridor in Pasco have surpassed 5,660 units, up 17 percent from last year.
The view is much the same in the Tampa Bay area's other housing hotbeds: further north on Pasco's State Road 52, or below the Alafia River in south Hillsborough, along State Road 301 and into Manatee County.
Most of the top communities (based on housing starts) - from No. 1 Trinity in Pasco and No. 2 FishHawk Ranch in southern Hillsborough to No. 9 South Fork in Hillsborough and No. 10 Heritage Pines in Pasco - are in one of these two market areas.
Based on Polito's analysis, other housing experts and home building information, here's a quick top 10 of housing trends:
10. Florida will be the top destination of relocating boomer retirees, and will be followed by North Carolina, Nevada and Texas. Note that three of those four states have no state income tax. (North Carolina is the exception.). As boomer retirees arrive, watch for more building in the quieter Hernando and Citrus county housing markets.
9. The era of Tampa Bay as a super-low-cost housing mecca is fading. This year, the median price of an area home surpassed that of its counterpart in Atlanta. Tampa Bay's median price - $168,000 - is $12,000 more than Atlanta's median of $156,000. Still, it's cheaper than San Francisco's median: $625,000.
8. Pasco and south Hillsborough-Manatee are not just momentary housing hot spots. They will continue to be so for years to come because that's where the vacant land is. Of the 106,934 future lots tracked by Metrostudy, 28 percent are within the southwest and central Pasco markets, while 24.7 percent are within south Hillsborough.
7. While the Federal Reserve keeps raising short-term interest rates, mortgage rates are staying relatively low and stable. Look for the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage to stick around 6 percent at year-end, and rise to about 6.5 percent for most of 2005.
6. "Cheap" housing is disappearing. Homes priced at $110,000 or less comprised 13 percent of the area market in 1999. Now they make up 2 percent. Even a "no-frills" townhome tops $120,000, Polito says. Homes priced at $300,000 or more made up 7 percent of the area market in 1999. Now they are almost 13 percent of the market.
5. Does this area face a future housing bubble? Unlikely, even though the Tampa Bay area's median home prices rose 17.8 percent in the past year. Says Polito: "The housing supply in Florida is as tight as it has ever been." But some southern housing markets - including Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Houston and Austin - have an abundance of finished and vacant new homes that might mean prices will become softer in order to sell them. The Tampa Bay area has only a lean 0.7-month supply of finished vacant units.
4. Florida home building managed to grow in a third quarter marked by multiple hurricanes and negative advertising in the presidential campaign that hurt consumer confidence.
3. While the nation's unemployment rate is 5.5 percent, Florida's is 4.5 percent and the Tampa Bay area's is 4 percent.
2. If you have money to invest, consider waterfront property in Florida. Predicts Polito: "It will remain a good investment for the next 15 to 20 years."
1. The Tampa Bay area will remain in the nation's top 10 housing markets, and one of the top 10 growth markets for the next decade.
Move over, Candy Mountain. You have some tough competition right here.
