Death creates dynamic for change

Time will tell whether Arafat's passing stirs a moderation of attitudes among Mideast principals toward peace, or a hardening toward further violence.

JERUSALEM - The death of Yasser Arafat opens doors to both chaos and peace. Which it will be depends on whether his successors rein in the bombers, whether Israel returns to negotiations and whether President Bush will throw in his weight.

Both sides face a new situation.

Arafat never groomed a successor, and any new leadership is likely to seem colorless compared with him, but that could come as a relief to Palestinians more eager for results than drama.

On Israel's side, Arafat's departure deprives Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of his main excuse for not negotiating with the Palestinians. Israel and the United States had long dismissed Arafat as an obstacle to peace, saying he was tainted by terrorism and ambivalent about the Jewish state's right to exist.

Bush's war on terror has suffered from four years of Israeli-Palestinian bloodshed, which has rallied Muslims against the West and fired up jihadists around the world. Now Palestinians are hoping a second-term Bush will take Israel to task, chiefly over Jewish settlements on Palestinian land.

"If you want to bring about a meaningful peace process you have to play a more even-handed role," said Palestinian Cabinet minister Saeb Erekat.

With his trademark headdress and military garb, Arafat was one of a dying breed - a charismatic, self-proclaimed revolutionary who embodied the Palestinian dream of statehood.

By contrast, the two men expected to wield most power in Palestinian politics - Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia and his predecessor, Mahmoud Abbas - aren't particularly popular, and they will likely need some early successes to gain the credibility and confidence necessary for any peace process.

However, many of the cards are held by Israel, which should make some gestures, says left-wing Israeli politician Yossi Beilin. He suggests lifting the roadblocks that make daily life tough for Palestinians, releasing prisoners and giving the new Palestinian leadership some breathing room.

Qureia and Abbas "have to be empowered and strengthened by the world and by Israel" so that they can "show that they can deliver the goods," Beilin said.

But whether they will still be in power in a few months is uncertain. Presidential elections must be held within 60 days after Arafat's death, according to Palestinian law.

Arafat's Palestinian Authority has been badly weakened by four years of conflict with Israel, and Arafat couldn't stem growing lawlessness in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

If new Palestinian leaders are to succeed where Arafat failed, militant groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad may have to be brought into the system. That could make them less likely to attack Israelis, or they could sense a power vacuum and intensify their violence.

"They're the ones who are willing to go out and kill and be killed and they exploit the image of doing God's will," said Richard Murphy, a U.S. Mideast envoy for the Reagan administration.

Israeli politics also come into play.

Sharon is going ahead with plans to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and four small West Bank settlements next year, but is threatened with intense opposition from the Jews who are to be evacuated, as well as others who see the withdrawal as an act of weakness.

Now Arafat's death is reshuffling both Palestinian and Israeli politics. Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a former prime minister, withdrew his resignation over Sharon's withdrawal plan, saying, "The expected departure of Arafat from the Palestinian leadership creates a new situation."

The decision gave a boost to Sharon, who has lost his parliamentary majority because of hard-line opposition to his plan.

A power struggle is now likely inside the Palestinian leadership, but so is a new approach to governance and peacemaking.

If Arafat's "passing frees up the atmosphere on the Palestinian side and they don't slip into a prolonged jousting for power, there are opportunities now," said Murphy.

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