Putin's course has West uneasy

The Russian leader's heavy hand and acceptance of flawed Ukraine elections threaten relations with Europe and the U.S.

Increasingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin walks alone.

He has alarmed the West with authoritarian policies at home. He announced last week that Russia was developing new nuclear missiles. And now he has embraced the official outcome of a Ukrainian election that Western observers say was rigged.

In defiance of Western leaders and amid growing popular unrest on the streets, the government of outgoing President Leonid Kuchma ignored reports of widespread electoral fraud and certified his prime minister as president-elect Wednesday. It said Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych got 49.46 percent of the vote to pro-Western opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko's 46.61 percent.

Opposition leaders called for a nationwide strike to shut down factories, schools and transportation. The Central Election Commission's decision to declare Yanukovych the winner "puts Ukraine on the verge of civil conflict," Yushchenko told hundreds of thousands of his cheering supporters who massed for a fourth straight night in central Kiev's Independence Square. Wednesday's crowds of Yushchenko loyalists were the largest yet.

After the speeches, many demonstrators headed to the presidential administration building, the site of a tense standoff with riot police Tuesday night. The police presence was heavy again, with about 40 buses disgorging more than 1,000 officers with helmets and shields. They stood in phalanxes up to eight deep outside the building.

Secretary of State Colin Powell said Wednesday that the United States does not view the election results as valid.

"If the Ukrainian government does not act immediately and responsibly, there will be consequences for our relationship," Powell said at a news conference.

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw called the elections "clearly flawed" and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder termed them "unacceptable." The NATO secretary-general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, said in Brussels that a review of the election was "absolutely necessary" and called it "the key to NATO-Ukraine relations."

The sharply negative foreign reaction emphasized how much diplomatic capital Putin is willing to expend to secure a friendly government in Kiev.

When he succeeded Boris Yeltsin nearly five years ago, the longtime KGB officer was an enigma whose past raised eyebrows and concerns about his intentions. But as the months passed he seemed to throw his lot in with the West, stepping up ties with the European Union and NATO and pledging to develop a clean, transparent economy.

He became fast friends with European leaders, picnicking in a hunting cabin outside Moscow with Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi and chatting in German with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. Early on, he forged close ties with President Bush - a strategic bond that remains strong today.

When he arrives in The Hague, Netherlands, for a summit with the European Union today, Putin is bound to be in for a chillier reception.

The meeting, postponed once this month, comes days after he set the stage for sharp confrontation with the West by congratulating Yanukovych as the winner in Ukraine.

Putin's gesture, which capped an unabashed campaign of support for his favored candidate in a country at the crossroads of Russian and Western interests, was the latest in a long line of statements, actions and policies that have dismayed and alienated Europe and the United States.

When many in the West look at Russia, they see a bleak political landscape painted in Putin's bold brush strokes: a parliament seemingly manipulated at will by the Kremlin; regional governors no longer elected but appointed directly by Putin; media that hew closely to the government line; a prominent business leader who challenged Putin thrown into prison.

EU concerns about a drift toward authoritarianism have hampered efforts to forge a new "strategic partnership" agreement with Russia. Europe is demanding that Russia pledge adherence to what it says must be the "common values" of Europe.

Putin said Tuesday that it was important "to avoid creating new dividing lines between us and Europe," but there is increasing concern in the EU that by strengthening control over Russia at the expense of democracy and by supporting heavy-handed leaders in former Soviet republics, the Russian leader is throwing up new divisions - or even rebuilding a Cold War curtain.

Some of Putin's recent statements give off the chilling air of that era.

Last week he boasted that Russia is developing new nuclear missiles he stressed no other nation would have for years. After the Beslan hostage-taking tragedy he darkly suggested that terrorists plotting to tear Russia apart had Western sympathy or support.

But while such statements are meant at least partly for hawks at home, Putin's involvement in the Ukraine election is likely to be the most serious test yet of his ties with the West.

By supporting the establishment candidate in Ukraine - where the United States and Europe are actively promoting a seminal shift to a more open, democratic society, in part as a buffer to his newly assertive Russia - Putin is taking his challenge of the West to a new level.

But analysts say Russia, for reasons that are as old as the nation itself, cannot concede Ukraine, the center of the first Slavic state, Kievan Rus.

"Russia cannot really afford to suffer a defeat over Ukraine," said Liliya Shevtsova, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center. "Russia cannot be a power without Ukraine. It is historically conditioned, but it is also a plain fact."

With a friendly government in Ukraine, plus allies in Belarus and Kazakstan, Russia is able to dominate a solid economic bloc on its borders. That provides an opportunity for shared markets and other economic partnerships that do not leave Russia alone outside of the European Union.

If Yushchenko became Ukraine's president, though, the country could decide to join NATO and end its substantial military cooperation with Russia. Such a move, some analysts believe, could cost Russia as much as $10-billion a year in contracts and other revenue.

In contrast, a Yanukovych presidency would guarantee Russian companies access to vital energy pipelines - Ukraine transports 90 percent of Russian gas to Europe - and, crucially, Russia's own Black Sea fleet, whose headquarters is on leased property in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol.

Information from the Associated Press, Los Angeles Times, New York Times and Knight Ridder Newspapers was used in this report.

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