The Hispanic vote

Hispanics emerged after this year's election as one of the nation's most coveted voting groups. Democrats and Republicans alike realize that 16-million people - and counting - are up for grabs. A slim majority of Latino voters still went with John Kerry, identifying with bedrock Democratic issues such as protecting labor, expanding health care and supporting public education. But President Bush took 44 percent, a nine-point gain from 2000, winning support from socially conservative Hispanics on issues such as abortion and gay marriage.

These shifting tides are too complex to project to the 2008 election. While Republicans made gains nationwide, Democrats cut into Hispanic constituencies in Florida, taking Cuban-American support that had been solidly Republican, as younger Hispanics moved beyond the single issue of dictator Fidel Castro. Exit polls show Kerry took 44 percent of the Latino vote in Florida, up from Al Gore's 34 percent in 2000.

Hispanic voters, like most other Americans, seem more interested in specific issues and candidates than in party identification. While Kerry peeled away more Hispanics in Florida, Latinos voted overwhelmingly for Cuban-born Republican Mel Martinez, who defeated Democrat Betty Castor for an open U.S. Senate seat. In Colorado, Hispanic Democrat Ken Salazar won his U.S. Senate race by almost the same margin that Kerry lost the state.

Most Hispanic voters still value traditional elements of the Democratic agenda, as they see health care and education as vital for providing their children an opportunity for a better life. But that same focus on the welfare of the family, coupled with a predominantly Catholic culture, made many Latinos receptive to the GOP's conservative social platform.

Republicans generally did a better job this year of speaking to the ambivalence of Hispanics. But Democrats are also excited, especially about their gains in Florida, which they see continuing as more non-Cuban Latinos move into the state. Many have established their families along the I-4 corridor of central Florida. Voters of Puerto Rican origin comprise two-thirds of the Latino electorate in Orange County, which itself accounts for 11 percent of the Hispanic vote statewide.

This year's election should be a warning to both parties that the Hispanic vote cannot be taken for granted. Latinos are the largest and fastest-growing minority in the country, and nearly 500,000 U.S.-born Latinos become eligible to vote every year. Hispanic voters already are a powerful force in such battleground states as Florida, New Mexico and Colorado, and they will increasingly shape the course of this immigrant country for years to come.

[Last modified November 28, 2004, 00:41:12]