Ukraine braces for election, aftermath

KIEV, Ukraine - For the second time in a month, a deeply divided Ukraine casts ballots in a runoff election between presidential candidates who have increased their hostile rhetoric since their last fraud-marred vote, raising fears of violence no matter who wins.

Opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko - whose face still is badly scarred from dioxin poisoning this fall that he blamed on authorities - has emerged as the front-runner in Sunday's election. He is building on the momentum of round-the-clock protests launched by his orange-clad supporters after his rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, was declared the winner of the Nov. 21 runoff.

That balloting was later voided by the Supreme Court, which ordered Sunday's new vote.

On Thursday, Ukraine's Security Service denied any involvement in the poisoning of Yushchenko.

Yushchenko has recovered enough to return to the campaign trail and lead the mass protests dubbed the "orange revolution," likening them to the mass movements that swept aside the Berlin Wall and signaled the end of Communism in eastern Europe.

Yanukovych has warned that his opponent cannot win over Ukraine's densely populated, Russian-speaking east, saying a Yushchenko victory would only be acknowledged by part of Ukraine.

But the giant street protests and the annulment of Yanukovych's victory have weakened the prime minister, and opinion polls show him likely to lose.

He has been abandoned by his principal backer, outgoing President Leonid Kuchma, deserted by his top lieutenants and forced to reinvent himself as an opposition figure - even though he runs the government.

The U.S. State Department considers the election "a historic opportunity to validate a democratic choice free of fraud," deputy spokesman Adam Ereli said Thursday in Washington. "We look forward to an election free of violence and intimidation."

The election will be monitored by at least 8,000 observers and will be conducted under recently changed electoral laws tailored to prevent fraud.

But Yanukovych has already alleged that changes to regulations over voting at home and absentee ballots will disenfranchise millions.

Yushchenko told a roaring crowd of supporters Wednesday to be on guard against plots to disrupt the election.

"It is very likely that the side that loses will make every effort not to acknowledge the winner and question the winner's legitimacy - in the courts or through more sinister means," said Leonid Polyakov, a political analyst with the Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Studies.

Ukraine's eastern regions have threatened to seek greater autonomy if Yushchenko wins, and the media is awash with rumors that armed pro-Yanukovych bands are poised to flood into Kiev, where the population strongly supports Yushchenko, after the vote.

Yushchenko's supporters believe he has a chance to nudge Ukraine closer toward the European Union. Yanukovych's backers fear severing this nation's historic, cultural and linguistic ties with Russia, and discrimination by the Ukrainian-speaking, nationalistic western part of the country.

A big question in Sunday's vote will be turnout, which was 79 percent on Nov. 21.

"Yushchenko must make sure that his supporters are not still living in the euphoria of what happened in Kiev and other cities, but that they actually get out and vote," said Kiev-based analyst Markian Bilynskyi.

A Kiev think tank said 53 percent of Ukrainians supported Yushchenko, and 42 percent said they would vote for Yanukovych.

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