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Gambling on redemption can pay big

By GARY SHELTON
Published January 26, 2005

Once, he was moody. He was angry. He was disgruntled.

Once, he was a cancer in the clubhouse. He was selfish. He was a distraction. He was a problem child.

Today, Corey Dillon is heading for the Super Bowl.

Once, he was a showboat. He was a troublemaker. He was mouthy.

Once, his shoulder carried the league's largest chip. He was divisive. He was a malcontent. He was about all the wrong things.

Today, Terrell Owens is heading for the Super Bowl.

One good season, and no one calls them bad guys anymore. For the Eagles, Owens has been, well, charismatic. For the Patriots, Dillon has been, um, dependable. Success will do that for a player. It will erase past mistakes and reinvent reputations.

And now for today's question:

Who do you want to gamble on next?

If you are the Bucs, where the win-loss record is hemorrhaging, it is a key question. Like a lot of players about to be on the market, the Bucs are a team where perceptions need altering.

Ask yourself, then. Given the chance, would you gamble on Randy Moss? On Ricky Williams? Maurice Clarett? John Abraham? Shaun Alexander? Plaxico Burress? And what price is fair? For that matter, how much interest should you have in Buffalo running back Travis Henry?

For the Bucs, those are the hard questions.

Usually, there is are reasons a player becomes a free agent. Usually, there is something unsavory on his resume, unsatisfactory about his ability or unappealing about his price tag.

Given enough salary cap room, it is an easy thing to sign a big name. The challenge is to sign Owens or Dillon rather than Warren Sapp or Jeff Garcia or Charlie Garner or any of the other disappointments to change uniforms a year ago.

Ah, but if you had a chance to trade a draft pick in the middle of the second round for Dillon, wouldn't you do it? If you had a chance to trade a third-round pick and a journeyman defensive lineman for Owens, wouldn't you do it?

Start with Moss. Although the Vikings say the talk is premature, there remains speculation the team has grown tried of Moss walking off the field while the game is going on, of his end zone dramatics, of his constant reminders that he simply doesn't get it.

Despite all of that, if the price is right, I would take a chance on Moss in an instant.

No, he doesn't get it. Yes, he needs better advice. On the other hand, no one adjusts to the deep ball like Moss. It doesn't matter how many defensive backs seem to encircle Moss, he always seems to find the ball.

In the NFL, it seems that's kind of important.

The price? That's the touchy thing. Early speculation is the Vikings want two No. 1 draft picks. For a franchise that has thrown away No. 1 picks like poker chips in recent seasons, that's too much. But the Ravens are talking about the No. 22 pick in the draft and a starting (not starring) defensive player.

That's more like it. The Bucs might have to be creative (such as trading down with the No. 5 overall pick and keeping part of the surplus). Still, it's worth adding the salary cap numbers.

As long as we are allowing the Bucs to shop for headaches, how about Ricky Williams?

You remember Williams? A year ago, everyone thought he was a tough, though sometimes troubled, running back for the Dolphins. That was before he abandoned his teammates, jumped ship and began to audition for the next Cheech and Chong movie. Should the Bucs be interested in him, too?

Answer: Not in a million years. Not for free. Not a chance.

The difference is that, for all of of the sideshows, no one doubted either Dillon's or Owens' love of the game. If you talk to defensive players, both players were held in high esteem for their competitiveness.

As for Williams, third and 1 doesn't seem to interest him anymore. If he comes back, it will be for all the wrong reasons.

Best advice? Quit on Ricky before Ricky quits on you.

If I'm the Bucs, I say no to John Abraham, not because he seemed more interested in protecting his payday than helping his team, but because I have greater needs than defensive end. I say no to Maurice Clarett, not because of the way he turned on Ohio State, but because there are too many good backs who aren't as big a game. I say no to Shaun Alexander, not because he blamed his coaches for costing him the NFL rushing title, but because he tiptoes too much to deserve it anyway. I say maybe to Plaxico Burress, who seemed to be more disappointed in his numbers than the Steelers' loss in the AFC title game. Despite that, it would drive safeties crazy to have him on the same field as Michael Clayton.

As for Travis Henry, the Buffalo running back who the Bucs are said to be interested in, I would wait for him to go on sale. No, Henry doesn't have the baggage others listed here do, but he's not worth the No. 37 pick in the draft. Put it this way: Dillon was traded last year for the No. 56 pick in the draft, and he had six 1,000-yard seasons behind him. Henry has two.

If I could get Henry for a third, I might be interested. Of course, if the Bucs are really interested in Auburn running back Ronnie Brown, then Henry doesn't fit.

That's the way it works when you shop the headache aisle. A team needs to be picky, be thrifty and be wise.

Also, it needs to stock up on aspirin.

[Last modified January 26, 2005, 05:01:05]