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Two historic days

A look at Iraq's first free election in more than 50 years continues today with a look at how it differs from last fall's election in Afghanistan. Saturday will focus on key questions about Sunday's vote in Iraq.

By wire services
Published January 28, 2005

[Photo: AP]

\CIraqi junior soccer players carry election posters of Shiite cleric Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim at the stadium in Baghdad's Shiite slum, Sadr City, during halftime Thursday. The player in the foreground is wearing no shoes because the team doesn't have his size: European 47 or U.S. 12 1/2.

WHAT'S AT STAKE

Afghanistan: The Oct. 9 vote was for a president, who will serve for five years.

Iraq: Voters will select the 275-member National Assembly, or Parliament, that will serve for a transitional period; also will elect regional legislatures. Assembly members will choose a prime minister and Cabinet and draft a constitution; elections for a permanent government are to be held by Dec. 15.

Afghanistan: Hamid Karzai, the interim leader, was the clear front-runner among 16 presidential candidates. He was inaugurated Dec. 7.

Iraq: Voters will pick from lists of candidates provided by 111 parties or groups. In all there are some 19,000 candidates; most voters won't know who they are. The mostly Shiite religious coalition, the United Iraqi Alliance, is expected to gain the most seats. There is no shoo-in for prime minister.

Afghanistan: Taliban insurgents and al-Qaida fighters kept a steady drumbeat of attacks after they were ousted in 2001. Nearly 1,000 people, including 30 American soldiers, were killed in the 10 months before the October elections. The elections were free of major violence. Although insurgents still pose a challenge, Afghanistan's stability is probably more threatened by the government's inability to curb regional warlords and the heroin and opium trade.

Iraq: The Iraqi insurgency is composed of former members of Saddam Hussein's regime and disaffected Sunni Muslim Arabs and a smaller group of foreign Islamic militants sympathetic to al-Qaida. The insurgency likely will affect voting in at least four Sunni-dominated provinces and will be the main obstacle to Iraq's stability after elections. Since the beginning of the war, 1,418 U.S. troops have been killed. Since January 2004, more than 5,600 Iraqi police and civilians died in war-related attacks.

Afghanistan: About 230 national observers monitored more than 5,000 polling centers and 30,000 ballot boxes. Hundreds of U.N. staff members took the lead in organizing the election. The European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe sent observer missions. About 100,000 security personnel were deployed, including 40,000 Afghan police officers, 20,000 newly trained army troops, about 18,000 coalition troops and 9,000 NATO troops.

Iraq: 18,000 national observers for between 5,000 and 6,000 polling centers and 90,000 ballot boxes. About 121 international observers will monitor from outside the country because of the violence. The United Nations and European Union have not sent observers but sent a small group of advisers. Iraqis say 300,000 U.S. and Iraqi security forces will be available election day. Iraqi forces include an estimated 59,000 police and 37,000 national guard. Multinational forces - including 150,000 U.S. troops - will serve as the outer ring of protection, if needed.

Afghanistan: 10.5-million, out of a population of 25-million, plus 750,000 refugees in Pakistan and 400,000 to 600,000 in Iran. Turnout was about 75 percent.

Iraq: 14-million, out of a population of 26-million, plus about 255,600 overseas who registered to vote in 14 countries. Turnout expected to be about 50 percent.

Afghanistan: $200-million.

Iraq: The government has allocated $250-million for the election inside Iraq and $90-million for the overseas vote.

Sources: Times wires, Times files, Brookings Institution, Associated Press, Agence France-Presse, Chicago Tribune, Observer

[Last modified January 28, 2005, 06:01:38]