By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
Published January 30, 2005
A confluence of factors is setting the stage for the busiest and most competitive election cycle this area has seen in decades.
With an unusually high number of incumbent legislators stepping aside and the nearly unprecedented prospect of two Tampa Bay congressional seats coming open for 2006, dozens of ambitious and/or term-limited politicians are starting to jockey for their next political steps.
Throw in that three of the leading prospects for governor are from the bay area - Republican Attorney General Charlie Crist of St. Petersburg and Tampa Democrats U.S. Rep. Jim Davis and former education commissioner Betty Castor - and the politicking could be dizzying.
Hillsborough appears to be getting more reliably Republican with each election cycle, while Pinellas has emerged as perhaps the most important swing county in Florida. Castor comfortably won Pinellas in November in the U.S. Senate race against Republican Mel Martinez, while President Bush barely carried the county.
Pinellas also has the lion's share of legislative seats opening up, with at least five of the county's eight state House seats certain to wind up with a new representative.
"I've got a gubernatorial candidate (Crist), a congressional candidate, a state Senate candidate and five state House races to worry about," said Tony DiMatteo, the new Pinellas Republican chairman. "As they say, it's going to be interesting."
Whether these seats change parties is less certain. But almost all Pinellas seats are at least potentially competitive without an incumbent in place.
"This next election cycle is the most important that I'm probably going to see in a long, long time," said Carrie Wadlinger, the new Pinellas Democratic chairwoman. "I am really excited and energized because we already have some outstanding candidates and we're starting early enough that we have time to groom and raise money and build support."
With political dominoes teetering across the region, we offer an early guide to the state and federal races to watch:
11th Congressional District
A lot of ambitious Democrats are waiting for U.S. Rep. Davis, D-Tampa, to decide whether he's going to risk his political career on a run for governor. The odds appear better than even that he will take the plunge. (Other Democratic prospects include Castor, state Sen. Rod Smith of Gainesville, Lawton "Bud" Chiles III and state Democratic Chairman Scott Maddox.)
If Davis vacates the seat, which is mostly in Hillsborough but includes parts of St. Petersburg and northern Manatee County, several potentially strong Democrats might seek to replace him, including: Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor; attorney and former state House candidate Scott Farrell; state Sen. Les Miller; and former Tampa mayoral candidate and Clinton administration official Frank Sanchez.
State lawmakers tinkered with the district in 2000, making it more solidly Democratic while shoring up the GOP strength of U.S. Rep. C.W. Bill Young's congressional district. The result is that strong Republican candidates appear to be steering away from the race for now.
9th Congressional District
The district represented since 1982 by Rep. Mike Bilirakis, R-Tarpon Springs, is so Republican-leaning that strong Democrats may be tough to find for the race. In fact, even Republicans may be hard to find for this rare open seat - thanks to the politically potent Bilirakis name.
The congressman's son, state Rep. Gus Bilirakis, is already announced, and many believe he will be tough to beat, thanks to the family name and his father's Washington fundraising ability. Other Republican prospects include former state Sen. John Grant, state Sens. Victor Crist and Mike Fasano and Clearwater attorney Jerry Figurski, but a number of obvious candidates appear to be staying away.
"Right now I'm just concentrating on practicing law," said former state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd of Plant City, who made sure the district was extended in 2000 to take him in.
State Senate races
The most competitive state Senate seat may prove to be District 16, which includes parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough and is being vacated by Republican Jim Sebesta. The district leans Republican but is competitive, with most of its voters residing in Pinellas. Democratic state Rep. Charlie Justice of St. Petersburg is running, and Republican state Reps. Frank Farkas of St. Petersburg and Kim Berfield of Clearwater are squaring off for what appears to be an unpredictable primary.
Senate District 18, an overwhelmingly Democratic district in which more than 40 percent of residents are African-American, becomes an open seat if Les Miller jumps into the congressional race to succeed Davis. Contenders for that seat include state Reps. Frank Peterman of St. Petersburg and Arthenia Joyner of Tampa.
Term limits will open up state Senate President Tom Lee's District 10, which includes eastern Hillsborough, southeastern Pasco and a little of Polk County. So far, veteran state Rep. Sandra Murman and former Hillsborough County Commission candidate Steven Cleveland have filed to run for the seat, but count on more to come. Johnnie Byrd is among the prospects frequently mentioned.
The district is heavily Republican, and Lee is in a position to influence who succeeds him. While often lamenting how money and legislative business mix, Lee is sitting on more than $1-million that he can dole out from his own political account.
Then there's the prospect of District 12 or District 11 opening up, should Republican Sens. Victor Crist or Mike Fasano decide to take on Gus Bilirakis for Congress as some Republicans hope. Then again, both may want to wait until redistricting in 2010 opens up the prospect of a newly carved congressional seat in that area.
State House races
In Hillsborough, two solidly Democratic House seats may open up. Arthenia Joyner in District 59 is expected to run for Les Miller's Senate seat if he runs for Congress, while District 58 opens up as term limits take out Bob Henriquez. Republican Hernando County Commissioners Robert Schenck and Nancy Robinson are prospects for the potentially competitive District 44 seat that comes open as Dave Russell leaves office.
Nowhere else in Florida are there more competitive House races coming up than in Pinellas.
District 48, which covers northeast Pinellas and a sliver of southeast Pasco, is Pinellas' most strongly Republican district and is to be vacated by Gus Bilirakis. The Republican contenders so far include likely front-runner Peter Nehr, a Tarpon Springs commissioner (who recently opposed the area's mega Wal-Mart); Palm Harbor Fire Commissioner Ken Peluso; and Christopher Schlenker, a construction manager from Palm Harbor.
The district is probably the weakest prospect for Democrats, who nonetheless have intriguing candidates lining up, including Carl Zimmerman. He is a onetime Republican precinct committeeman and teacher of the year who ran unsuccessfully in 1992.
Conservative Republican Leslie Waters represents District 51, but the district that includes Seminole, Pinellas Park, Largo and South Pasadena is hardly a bastion of conservatism. Betty Castor won the district handily, and President Bush won it narrowly. Likely contenders to succeed Waters include her legislative aide, Republican Bruce Cotton,and Democratic insurance agent John Sinibaldi of Seminole.
Both Castor and Bush also won Republican Kim Berfield's District 50. The district stretches from Dunedin to northeast St. Petersburg and so far includes no Democratic contender. Republican former Clearwater Commissioner Ed Hooper is running for the seat as Berfield pursues the state Senate.
Republicans may not find a candidate for Charlie Justice's south Pinellas District 53, but Democrats who might seek that seat so far include St. Petersburg City Council members Richard Kriseman and Jay Lasita.
Meanwhile, candidates are starting to line up for the ever-competitive south Pinellas District 52 seat (barely won by Bush and comfortably won by Castor) being vacated by Republican Frank Farkas. Republican prospects include chiropractor Rod Jones, son of state Sen. Dennis Jones; real estate agent Ross Johnson; and attorney Sean Scott. Democratic prospects include former district candidates Liz McCallum and Chris Eaton.
Overwhelmingly Democratic District 55 depends on what Jim Davis decides. Frank Peterman could decide to run for Les Miller's Senate seat or challenge Miller and others for Davis' U.S. House seat. St. Petersburg City Council member Earnest Williams is one of Peterman's potential successors.
Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com
