Clean up in the Oscar pool
By Knight Ridder Newspapers
Published February 4, 2005
In the annual race for the little gold guys, nobody knows when Adrien Brody (The Pianist ) will pop up out of nowhere to swipe an Oscar from Jack Nicholson (a favorite that year for About Schmidt ) or Marisa Tomei (My Cousin Vinny ) will send Vanessa Redgrave (Howards End ) packing. But, though the Oscars generally have one unpredictable category per year, the rest are eminently predictable, which should make it fairly easy for you to score in your office Oscar pool. So, while we in no way endorse wagering -- and, in fact, think it's very, very wrong -- we can offer a few tips on how to pick the Oscars
Ignore quality: Don't expect actually seeing Million Dollar Baby or Sideways to help you pick winners. The best actor, director or song of the year almost never wins; usually, it isn't even nominated. As a result, watching nominees to determine winners is like voting for the Green Party -- high-minded but useless.
Remember the past: Flashy epics trump intimate dramas. Dramas trump comedies. Ingenues win supporting actress. Veterans win supporting actor. And, most important, subtle acting doesn't win Oscars -- drunk scenes, handicaps, hideous makeup, accents and mental illness win Oscars.
Think about make-goods: Consider who got shafted last year, since Oscars are often about making good on errors. Yeah, technically Russell Crowe won for Gladiator, but he really won for the prior year's The Insider . Oscars are often given for lifetime achievement so nominees with losses under their belts have an edge.
Importance of being important: Oscar voters like movies that make them feel good. Best-picture-wise, that can mean everything from anointing a 10-hour fantasy that affirms the triumph of the human spirit (Lord of the Rings ) to a misanthropic comedy that affirms the triumph of the human spirit (American Beauty ).
Boring categories: If your pool includes time-to-head-for-the-fridge awards that clutter the show, don't freak. They're the easiest: editing almost always goes to your best picture; sound goes to loudest movie; cinematography goes to prettiest movie; and documentary goes to a Holocaust flick. And don't forget: best score goes to a foreign film or John Williams.
Bonus points for actors: Actors outnumber all categories of Oscar membership, which gives them an edge and explains why Ben Affleck has a statue. So when you're marking your office pool ballot, think like an actor.