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A risky decision for Rep. Davis

The low-key Tampa congressman thinks he can fix the ills he sees in Tallahassee. But some wonder if any Democrat can win a statewide race.

By ADAM C. SMITH
Published February 6, 2005

	[AP photo]
	"This is a divided state," Rep. Jim Davis said. "We're not red, we're not blue. We're purple -- we're bruised."

There is nothing brash or brazen about U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, his style more Jimmy Stewart than Arnold Schwarzenegger.

When hometown favorites Bill McBride and Betty Castor ran for governor and senator in 2002 and 2004, Davis let other elected Democrats make endorsements while he cautiously stayed on the sidelines. He decided against running for governor four years ago but wrestled with the decision so long he was caricatured as the hand-wringing Hamlet on the Hillsborough.

Now it's decision time again: Should a politician unknown to most Floridians give up his congressional seat to risk his political future at a time when many savvy strategists question whether any Democrat can win a statewide Florida election?

"A lot of the people close to Jim Davis are really discouraging him from running for governor and want him to stay where he's at and bide his time," said Democratic consultant Vic DiMaio of Tampa. "Jim is a great guy, very smart, and would be a great governor. But why should he be a sacrificial lamb?"

But belying his chronically cautious image, Davis is on the verge of jumping in. Many expect the plunge to come in days, not weeks.

"I think he's already in the race, and I think he's got a better shot of winning than anyone else on the horizon," said Dan Reynolds, an AFL-CIO leader in Broward County, and one of countless political insiders across Florida that Davis has huddled with over the past few years.

Davis would not come right out and say he's in. But sipping coffee last week at a Tampa cafe, he animatedly tore into the way decisions are made in Tallahassee, sounding every bit like a gubernatorial candidate and nothing like his rep as the stiff policy wonk.

"What you're hearing is not just my voice, but the voice of many, many Floridians who don't feel they're being heard in Tallahassee. And it's not just Democrats, but Republicans and independents, liberals, conservatives and moderates," he said, voice rising, as his wife, Peggy, nodded in agreement.

"I would run a campaign against the Tallahassee establishment and everything it stands for, which I find revolting as a Floridian. This Legislature, this administration has allowed the special interests to run this state in a way we haven't seen in decades. I would run a campaign for massive reform in Tallahassee."

Would run? Against the Tallahassee establishment? Doesn't sound like somebody planning to stay in Washington.

In the aftermath of yet another big election loss, Florida Democrats are hunting for a winning recipe. Plenty are unconvinced that a patrician and earnest congressman has what it takes.

The last wealthy, white lawyer from Tampa, political novice Bill McBride, lost overwhelmingly to Jeb Bush in 2002 after failing to excite liberal south Floridians or conservative north Floridians. President Bush won Florida comfortably last year, despite unprecedented Democratic spending and organizing.

Of the last nine opportunities to win a statewide election in Florida, Democrats have won just once, and they have scant reason for confidence this time.

Most of the prospective or likely Democratic candidates - Davis; state Sen. Rod Smith of Gainesville; Lawton "Bud" Chiles III; and state Democratic chairman Scott Maddox - are little known statewide compared to the Republican prospects - Attorney General Charlie Crist, Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher and Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings. Especially around Tampa Bay, many activists from both parties see Crist as the inevitable winner.

"If people think Charlie Crist would be a better governor than me, then they should vote for him," said Davis, after dismissing the notion that Florida is turning Republican. "This is a divided state. We're not red, we're not blue. We're purple - we're bruised."

Friends say there's a reason Davis sounds undaunted by the Democrats' track record in Florida.

"One only has to look at what people were saying about Jim Davis when he first ran for Congress to see what a mistake it is to underestimate him," said U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Weston.

As a 30-year-old political rookie, Davis beat nine other candidates to win a state House seat in 1988. Nobody gave him a prayer in 1996 when he took on former Tampa Mayor Sandy Freedman, Phyllis Busansky and Pat Frank for Congress, but he proved himself a strong money raiser and aggressive campaigner.

"He just kind of plodded along in his own methodical, Opie kind of way, and he became the very clear alternative to the others," Democratic consultant Bob Buckhorn recounted. "It really was like the tortoise and the hare."

But while Davis has established himself in one congressional district, there are 24 others in Florida that barely know him.

Skeptics say he's too staid to excite the Democratic base in South Florida. Or too blue-blood to make inroads in rural North Florida. Some strategists question his political instincts after he skipped a high-profile vote on overhauling America's intelligence system to hold a private political meeting.

"If I could appoint him governor, I might because he'd be a super governor. But the reason I'm supporting Rod Smith is because I'm tired of losing," said state Sen. Steve Geller, D-Hallandale Beach.

Anyone with a legislative voting record as long as Davis' inevitably has votes that can be used to cast him as a liberal, Geller said. At least Smith's background as the prosecutor who put Danny Rolling on death row helps immunize him.

"The Republicans made Bill McBride seem like some sort of ultraliberal, and I believe they will do the same thing to Jim Davis even though it's not accurate," Geller said. "I don't believe they can do that with Rod Smith."

Davis is a moderate Democrat sometimes out of step with the Democratic base.

The antideficit Concord Coalition ranked him more fiscally responsible than all but two members of the Florida congressional delegation. He supported banning the so-called partial-birth abortion procedure and requiring parental notification for minors seeking abortions.

He prides himself on being able to work with Republicans. In one high-profile move last year, the Republican-controlled House passed his controversial amendment to thwart new White House restrictions on relatives visiting family in Cuba.

Davis insists he's still enjoying Washington and "at the top of my game," though he can't help watch closely the goings-on in Tallahassee. "I'm not angry any more. I'm resolved. I'm resolved that it doesn't have to be that way."

Over coffee in Hyde Park last week, he repeatedly spoke of the need to promote "balance" in Tallahassee and unify the state. The current agenda, he said, is so focused on shrinking the size of government that Florida lacks any real vision from its leadership.

"Why are we debating building medical schools and chiropractic colleges the state doesn't need? Why are we debating regulating slot machines right now? There's an absence of leadership," said Davis, who opposed opening Florida to legalized gambling. "This is a state that's aging rapidly, growing rapidly and is increasingly diverse. We need a leader who is going to bring us together."

For a campaign that could require more than $30-million, getting started early is a must. Smith and Chiles, the son the late governor, already have opened fundraising accounts. About the only Democrat with enough name recognition to hold off announcing is former Education Commissioner Betty Castor, who narrowly lost her U.S. Senate bid last year. She hasn't ruled out running, and if she eventually jumps in, her candidacy could overshadow the rest of the field.

Davis said he's not worrying about things outside his control, and no matter what he would stick with his gubernatorial campaign.

"Yeah, I'm dotting my i's and crossing my t's, but when I make a decision I stick to it," he said. "I am not going to do this unless I can run the campaign that needs to be run, the campaign that will win. I'm not going to run except to win."

Adam C. Smith can be reached at adam@sptimes.com or 727 893-8241.

AGE: 47

CAREER: Lawyer. Florida House 1988-97 (majority leader 1994-97); U.S. House 1997 to present.

EDUCATION: B.A. Washington and Lee University; law degree University of Florida.

FAMILY: Wife Peggy, two sons

RELIGION: Episcopalian.

DEMOCRATS: Lawton "Bud" Chiles III of Orlando (announced); former Education Commissioner Betty Castor of Tampa; U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa; state Democratic chairman Scott Maddox of Tallahassee; state Sen. Rod Smith of Gainesville (announced).

REPUBLICANS: Attorney General Charlie Crist; Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher; Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings.

[Last modified February 6, 2005, 00:39:17]