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Uphill battle ahead for Rep. Davis

By TIM NICKENS
Published February 27, 2005

About this time four years ago, Jim Davis talked about running for governor. The Tampa congressman was angry about Gov. Jeb Bush's policies. Sometimes cautious to a fault, he swore he was serious about giving up his safe congressional seat and running his first statewide race.

Davis looked over the cliff and backed away in 2001. He was one of the least engaging speakers among the would-be candidates at a state Democratic meeting in the early summer. Scott Maddox, now the Florida Democratic Party chairman, was more dynamic. Former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno had more star power. Tampa lawyer Bill McBride was more organized. Davis ultimately made the prudent decision not to run, and Bush easily defeated McBride.

Now it is four years later, and Davis again swears he is serious about running for governor. Other possible candidates, including Maddox, will be more dynamic on the stump. Betty Castor, fresh from an unsuccessful U.S. Senate race, has more star power. State Sen. Rod Smith of Gainesville has a more intriguing portfolio as a North Florida Democrat and former state attorney who sent Danny Rolling to death row.

So exactly what has changed that would make Davis a more viable candidate for governor?

First, Davis actually has opened a campaign account and declared he's in the race. He's working on raising money and assembling a finance team. He says four years ago he was mad at Bush but has moved past that and is more focused on change.

Second, the political dynamics have shifted. There will be no Bush on the ballot. It doesn't seem all that likely that Castor will run. If Democrats are ever going to find their way back to the governor's mansion, 2006 would be the year. There will be no incumbent, and voters could be itching for change.

At a St. Petersburg Times editorial board meeting the other day, Davis seemed to be testing a couple of themes. He kept referring to himself as a Floridian, a husband, a parent - virtually anything but a Democrat.

"We need a governor who brings the voice of the regular Floridian back to state government," he said.

That could be a wise strategy. There is no viable Democratic Party in this state, and it won't do Davis any good to campaign in Orlando with Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean. Davis or any other Democrat will have to define himself and keep his distance from a party that can provide him with little anyway. Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham cultivated their own supporters and didn't pay much attention to the political party, either.

Davis also will try to sell himself as a Tallahassee outsider. He talks about a state government that has lost touch, and he might cast himself as a reformer. He could get a boost from a group headed by Castor that is pushing for a constitutional amendment to overhaul the redistricting process. Legislative and congressional districts are rigged now to protect incumbents.

"We're going to drain the swamp," Davis said.

But by any measure, this will be an uphill campaign.

Davis is not well-known outside the Tampa Bay area. That might enable him to cast himself as the outsider for a while, but if he gains traction his opponents will easily poke holes in that. He has spent nearly a decade in Congress, and he was in the Legislature for eight years before that. He has cast thousands of votes, and despite his middle-of-the-road approach there will be plenty of fodder for foes to use to try to define him as something else.

It also will be tough for Davis to raise enough money to compete. Castor spent too much of her time raising money in the Senate race even with better name recognition and the considerable backing of Emily's List, the national organization that supports women candidates who favor abortion rights.

There will be the temptation for Davis and other Democrats to run against Bush. That would be a mistake. The challenge will be to separate the popular incumbent from his policies. A new poll last week showed voters are divided on whether the state has made any progress in education under Bush, despite his hyper-emphasis on testing and accountability. But Democrats will have to do more than criticize; they will have to sell voters on their own vision.

Davis understands all of that. Whether he can get Floridians to warm up to him and listen is another question.

Tim Nickens' e-mail address is nickens@sptimes.com

[Last modified February 27, 2005, 00:13:19]