tampabay.com

Analysis: Start is key for all horses

By BRANT JAMES
Published May 7, 2005


HOW THE RACE COULD UNFOLD

Spanish Chestnut should rocket to the front immediately, just as he has done in his past six starts, which include the Grade I Blue Grass and Grade II Lane's End and Santa Catalina. The favored Bellamy Road, breaking three posts to his right from No.16, will go with him, either burning himself out or proving he can rate after consecutive romps in the Grade I Wood Memorial and a Gulfstream allowance race. Coin Silver is likely to go along, too. Buzzards Bay will try but will not keep up.

Afleet Alex, Bandini, Tampa Bay Derby-winner Sun King and High Limit will settle in to stalk, hovering near the lead pack through the first mile to see who can handle the pace in the lead group.

With clear skies and warm temperatures forecast, the track should be fast, allowing the front-runners to establish a brisk pace.

By the clubhouse turn it will become apparent that Bellamy Road is for real. Jockey Javier Castellano will angle him in to save ground as the pretenders - Spanish Chestnut and Coin Silver - begin to fizzle. Afleet Alex jockey Jeremy Rose will maneuver around the faltering early speed horses to close the four- or five-length deficit on Bellamy Road, with Sun King and Edgar Prado struggling to keep up.

Andromeda's Hero will close with a vengeance but will be buried too deep to hit the board. So will Noble Causeway.

Bellamy Road begins to consume ground with his massive strides, winning the 131st Kentucky Derby. Afleet Alex will be second with Sun King third.