Parimutuels

How the race might unfold

By BRANT JAMES
Published June 11, 2005

The logical view is that Preakness winner Afleet Alex will top Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo again to win the last two legs of the Triple Crown. The skeptical view is that there may not be a colt in the race good enough to finish third.

Reverberate, second in the Grade II Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park on May 28, figures to set an early pace, having led or been second at every point of call in his past three races. Granted, two were allowances. Southern Africa, a frontrunner whose speed figures have improved the past three races, should seek the front also. A.P. Arrow will be close behind. Pinpoint will try but not be able to keep up.

Afleet Alex and jockey Jeremy Rose and Giacomo under Mike Smith are likely to rate behind the small lead group, attempting to conserve energy. This will be crucial on a muggy, warm afternoon. Three races in five weeks is physically demanding. That the last is 11/2 miles, a distance they will likely never run again, is borderline torture.

Reverberate and Southern Africa will begin to tire at the far turn, conceding the lead to Rose a bit earlier than the young jockey wanted. The veteran Smith will attempt to keep pace as the class of the field makes the clubhouse turn alone. Chekhov makes a deep closing move to take third from Watchmon, the only horse in the field to have run close to the Belmont Stakes distance (though his win at 1 7/16 miles came in a turf maiden special weight).

Giacomo's distance-running bloodlines keep him heavy pursuit until the last 100 yards, but Afleet Alex holds on to win the Belmont Stakes by three lengths.

[Last modified June 11, 2005, 00:26:12]