Record 4 storms already for '05
Arlene, Bret, Cindy and Dennis streak into the season, with Cindy expected to make landfall today and Dennis expected to be a hurricane.
By GRAHAM BRINK
Published July 6, 2005
Hurricane season has jumped off to its quickest start ever, with one tropical storm coming ashore this morning near New Orleans and another gaining steam in the Caribbean Sea.
Tropical Storm Cindy was packing sustained winds of 70 mph, just below hurricane-strength, and was expected to make landfall early today.
Tropical Storm Dennis formed off the coast of Venezuela on Tuesday and became the fourth named storm of the season, the first time four storms have have formed so quickly.
"This many storms so early generally portends an active season," said Eric Blake, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. "It's not exactly the news people want to hear."
Dennis was moving northwest through the Caribbean Sea toward western Cuba at about 20 mph late Tuesday. It is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. If the five-day forecast holds, Dennis will be west of the Florida Keys on Saturday.
One of the primary factors in the storm's direction is a system of high pressure, called the Bermuda High, which was sitting over Florida on Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
That system is expected to slowly shift east, allowing Dennis to take a more northwesterly course.
The hurricane center said it was too soon to accurately forecast which parts of the United States would be at risk.
The center took some heat last August when Hurricane Charley veered from its predicted path and slammed into Port Charlotte.
Much of the criticism centered on the black "skinny" line that the hurricane center uses on charts and maps to represent the most likely path of hurricanes.
Blake warned against focusing on the skinny line. "Don't look at the line," he said. "Look at the whole area around the storm."
Forecasters said Dennis was likely to intensify over the next couple of days, partly because the Caribbean waters are "plenty warm."
Those higher water temperatures are at least partly to blame for the increase in early season activity.
The Bermuda High was exceptionally weak this winter, Blake said, and did not provide the usually cooling of Atlantic Basin waters - the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Water temperatures throughout a large region of the Atlantic Basin are two to three degrees above normal right now, he said. Warm waters help fuel tropical storms and hurricanes.
"During last year's early season we did not have as good of an idea that it was going to be so active," Blake said. "By the time we hit late July, the waters warmed up and a switch turned on. That switch turned on two months early this year."
Last year, 15 named storms formed in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, including hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, which all hammered Florida. But the 2004 season merely solidified an upward trend that started in 1995.
From 1950 through 1994, an average of fewer than 10 named storms formed in the Atlantic region. On average, about six of those became hurricanes.
From 1995 through 2004, the average number of named storms each year has increased to 13.7, with about eight becoming hurricanes.
"We know now that the '70s, '80s and early '90s were very quiet," Blake said. "We are likely to see this new trend last 20 years or so."
Since 1944, the busiest Atlantic region season on record was 1995 with 19 named storms, according to the National Hurricane Center. The most hurricanes - 12 - formed in 1969. The slowest season was 1983, with only four named storms.
Many storms don't make it to land. They are sheared apart at sea or lose strength before reaching shore. In 1916, a record eight tropical storms and hurricanes made landfall in the United States.
Graham Brink can be reached at 727 893-8406 or brink@sptimes.com