Chance of more reign? 20-90 percent
By TOM JONES
Published July 18, 2005
No doubt Lightning fans celebrated when the NHL and the players' union reached a tentative agreement last week to end the 301-day lockout.
Now comes the hangover.
While a new collective-bargaining agreement with a salary cap appears good long-term for the small-market Lightning, it creates short-term headaches. With about $24-million annually to spend, the Lightning has 13 free agents, including several key parts from the Stanley Cup championship team.
General manager Jay Feaster will burn up his cell phone this week trying to bring back his stars for another run at the Cup, but it's hard to imagine he can bring everyone back.
Here's one guess at the Lightning's chances of bringing back its top free agents.
NIKOLAI KHABIBULIN: He is the Lightning's most important free agent. He's finally an elite goalie and the Lightning could not have won the Cup without him. Plus, the Lightning isn't sure backup John Grahame can take over the No. 1 spot. The Lightning wants Khabibulin back, but at the right price. It isn't going to pay him $7-million a year.
Khabibulin likes money. He once sat out nearly two years because he didn't think he was being treated well financially. So a part of him might be looking to regain some of the money he lost during that time. Now might be his best chance.
The Red Wings want him and so do the Coyotes, his old team. Everyone he clashed with in Phoenix is long gone and Khabibulin, whose family lives in Phoenix, recently bought a new home there. Chances of re-signing: 20 percent.
MARTIN ST. LOUIS: No player was hurt more by the lockout than St. Louis. He was the league MVP and his contract was up. He could argue that if anyone in hockey deserves the maximum salary (about $7.8-million), it's him. Again, the Lightning isn't going to offer anyone $7-million a year.
More than a big chunk of money, St. Louis wants a long-term deal even though he could sign a one-year deal and then become an unrestricted free agent. The Lightning is hesitant to give too many players long-term deals because future salary caps could decrease. The Lightning wants St. Louis badly enough, however, that it will give in to a multiyear contract. Chances of re-signing: 80 percent.
VINNY LECAVALIER: For years, the rumors have been that Lecavalier will end up in his hometown of Montreal playing for the beloved Canadiens. Forget that. Lecavalier doesn't want the pressure. He likes the Tampa Bay area and, like St. Louis, would be willing to forfeit a little money for the security of a long-term deal. The only thing that could throw a wrench into that plan is some team offering Lecavalier the maximum, forcing the Lightning to match. Chances of re-signing : 75 percent.
DAN BOYLE: His stock is high. He's one of the better offensive defensemen in a league short on even decent offensive defensemen. The Lightning might need to move on Boyle quickly before some team makes an offer that is more than Boyle is really worth or the Lightning is able to pay. Chances of re-signing: 50 percent.
RUSLAN FEDOTENKO: A clutch player (he scored both goals in the Game 7 victory against Calgary) whom the Lightning really wants back. But he could end up a salary-cap casualty. The Lightning might have to chose between Fedotenko and, say, Khabibulin or Lecavalier. If that happens, the Lightning will have to turn him loose. The best hope is a long-term deal for maybe a little more than he is worth. Chances of re-signing: 50 percent.
THE VETERANS: The big two are Tim Taylor and Dave Andreychuk. Both are unrestricted, want to return to Tampa Bay and likely won't field offers from any other team unless the Lightning makes no offer to them. Chances of re-signing: 90 percent.