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Election 2006: All aboard Speculation Express

By JEFF WEBB
Published August 21, 2005

We are just 380 days away from the 2006 primary election, and there are no announced candidates for one of the most coveted public offices in this region, Florida House District 44.

If some of the rumors circulating turn out to be accurate, the race for that House seat, which includes most of Hernando County and parts of Sumter and Pasco counties, could create a ripple that will affect one or more contests for the Hernando County Commission.

So, let's hitch a ride on The Speculation Express and see where it takes us.

The most credible rumor is that Commissioner Rob Schenck will run for the House 44 job being vacated by Rep. David Russell Jr., who will be forced out because of the eight-year term limit.

For months, Schenck, whose first term on the commission ends in 2006, has repeatedly demurred when asked if he will run for the House seat. He recently said he would make a decision by the end of September. But the longer he waits the more it looks like he's using this time to get his political ducks in a row.

Schenck confirmed he's had discussions with "people in Tallahassee." But Sen. Mike Fasano, R-New Port Richey, whose District 11 includes much of western Hernando County, was more specific.

"I've spoken to state (Republican) Party and House leaders about Rob. He's a good friend and a good Republican and he's done a fine job as a county commissioner." Fasano said he even recommended a campaign consultant to Schenck. He also said he hasn't heard of any other Republicans who might seek the job.

But I have.

One is Hernando County School Board member Sandra Nicholson. Nicholson recently said "I am seriously thinking about it." She acknowledges that Schenck is the focus of the kingmakers at the state GOP, and then uses that as one reason she may throw her hat into the ring.

"If I run, I will run from Hernando County, not Tallahassee," she said. "That's one of the problems with that (House seat). They are more concerned with what the state party says than they are about what people in Hernando County say."

Nicholson also said Schenck came to her and asked if she would support his candidacy, which was a nice way of saying he wishes she would not run. Nicholson said she didn't tell him for certain that she was going to run, but "let's just say I didn't offer him my support."

Schenck confirmed that scenario, adding "I consider the Nicholsons friends."

But wait! There's a catchy, you-can-dance-to-the-beat side of Schenck running for state representative.

Russell may go after Schenck's District 4 seat on the County Commission, and it sounds like he's on the same page as Schenck in terms of timing.

"I'm considering it. You'll hear something in the next two months," Russell said, adding that he and Schenck have "had discussions" about their respective candidacies. Russell also confirmed that "state (Republican) Party people have made inquiries" about Schenck and he has "given him a good recommendation, but I am not going to make endorsements."

Yet, no one besides Schenck "has expressed interest directly to me," Russell said. "I'm almost incredulous about that." And Russell, who faced a primary challenge in 2000 from Sandra Nicholson's husband, Nicholas, said he had not heard she is interested in the House seat.

Another name that keeps popping up as a possible House candidate is Commissioner Nancy Robinson, who just converted to GOP-ism earlier this year after serving 11 years on the commission as a Democrat.

When Robinson had a D after her name, she was always in the mix as a possible candidate for state rep.

No more.

Robinson says she her interests are purely local. "I'll stick with what I said when I switched parties. My interests are in Hernando County government. I can't say it any plainer than that."

And there are other riders in the Republican club car of the Speculation press.

One is former County Commissioner Len Tria, who now spends a good portion of his time as a lobbyist - er, make that government liaison - for the county's builders, Realtors and the Chamber of Commerce.

Tria says "I have been getting a lot of encouragement (to run) for either seat, but probably more for the County Commission. You're flattered and humbled and all that, but I don't know if that's what I want to get back into. I'm having a pretty good time doing what I'm doing."

As for Democrats who might be interested in the House seat?

It's anybody's guess. But whoever emerges will have his or her work cut out, according to Russell.

"The Democratic Party is not going to have much money to throw into this race. I don't think (the state party) even sees it as a possible swing seat. Besides, the Republicans will spend whatever it takes to keep the district."

Diane Rowden's name is being kicked around, ironically mostly by Republicans. She says that's crazy talk.

"First, I live in (House) District 43. Second, I have a house, a husband and my mom where I am. I have no intention of moving or running for (the House seat). I'd be willing to put it in writing."

Eddie McConnell, who has run against Sheriff Richard Nugent twice and lost twice is a possibility, but he may be more interested in a County Commission job. Interestingly, he lives in Schenck's Commission district and probably would have to take on the incumbent, or Russell, who may be perceived more like an incumbent than the incumbent.

Commissioner Chris Kingsley says he "would love to run for that job. I've always been interested" in the state Legislature.

"It's amazing how many people have suggested that I should run for the House, or have asked me if I plan to run." He also said he has been encouraged by Jay Rowden, chairman of the county Democratic Executive Committee.

That said, Kingsley says the timing is bad. "Leaving my commission term two years early really bothers me, and my daughter is a junior in high school, so she's got two more years."

Finally, there is Greg Williams a Ridge Manor resident who has gone after the District 44 seat twice, in 2000 and 2002, and lost both times to Russell.

Williams says the third time may be a charm.

"I have talked to some folks in Tallahassee about some fundraising issues. I am very seriously considering it. We need strong leadership in that position."

Williams sounds like he is already working on his campaign talking points.

"When I ran before, it was all about protecting our water. Now we need to protect our water and our land."

So there you have it. A whole passel of political possibilities. Hope you enjoyed the ride.

Jeff Webb can be reached at 352 754-6123 or webb@sptimes.com

[Last modified August 21, 2005, 00:50:20]