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Sprawling Katrina threatens disaster

By CHRIS TISCH, AARON SHAROCKMAN and GRAHAM BRINK
Published August 29, 2005

NEW ORLEANS - Hurricane Katrina turned into a monster storm Sunday that threatened to overwhelm this historic city with some of the most powerful winds ever to hit the United States.

It is the nightmare New Orleans has long feared.

Katrina was expected to make landfall at dawn, packing a potentially catastrophic one-two punch: 160 mph winds and up to 28 feet of storm surge.

The specter rattled the Big Easy.

Tens of thousands of people fled, clogging highways in all directions and filling shelters and hotels along the Gulf Coast.

Mayor Ray Nagin looked to a higher power.

"God bless us," he said.

A hurricane that powerful would likely breach the levees and sea walls that keep the Gulf of Mexico and the Mississippi River from inundating low-lying parts of the city and surrounding areas.

It could drown parts of the bowl-shaped city, much of which is below sea level, with 30 feet of chemical- and sewage-laden water. It could remain for days, raising fears of disease outbreaks.

The city's infamously decaying infrastructure and widespread poverty turn a terrible situation into a potential catastrophe.

The wind could destory 60 to 80 percent of the city's houses, according to the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center. Flooding could leave 1-million people homeless.

The water could submerge the French Quarter's cast-iron balconies and bars. Coffins could float from the city's above-ground cemeteries.

"This is very serious, of the highest nature," Nagin said. "This is a once-in-a-lifetime event."

But Katrina's impact will be felt all along the north Gulf Coast.

Officials in the Florida Panhandle urged residents to evacuate several barrier islands. The governor of Mississippi declared a state of emergency. Casinos in Mississippi shut down. Evacuees poured into hotels and evacuation shelters in the Florida Panhandle.

The storm threatens to virtually shut down an area crucial to the nation's energy needs. Roughly 30 percent of the oil and gas consumed in the United States flows along pipelines or is hauled in on tankers and barges in the Gulf Coast. Crude oil futures spiked $4.50, to over $70 a barrel.

Unless it changes path, the storm could turn out to be the most costly in U.S. history.

"This is really scary," said National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield.

"Bad no matter what'

The outer bands from Katrina began licking the north Gulf Coast on Sunday evening.

Hurricane-strength winds of 74 mph or higher extended 105 miles from the center. Tropical storm winds extended out 230 miles.

The sustained winds reached 175 mph Sunday afternoon before dropping to 160 mph later in the day. The storm could drop 15 inches of rain on an already saturated area.

The storm's intensity might fluctuate before making landfall, but it almost certainly will be a Category 4 or 5, said Cris Lauer, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"It looks like things are going to be bad no matter what," he said.

A Category 5 hurricane is not five times stronger than a Category 1. It's more like 500 times stronger, since the power increases exponentially as wind speeds grow, hurricane experts say.

The 160-mph sustained winds can destroy roofs and large buildings. They can toss around heavy items like washers and dryers like toys.

A strong Category 4 storm could produce $30-billion in damages, experts estimate. A Category 5 would be even worse.

Only three hurricanes have made landfall in the United States as Category 5 storms since records began being kept.

An unnamed Category 5 storm hit the Florida Keys in 1935. Hurricane Camille hit Mississippi and the north Gulf Coast in 1969. And Hurricane Andrew slammed into South Florida in 1992, packing 165-mph winds. Andrew caused $26.5-billion in damage, the costliest storm in U.S. history.

Hurricane Betsy in 1965 was the last storm to hit New Orleans directly. The Category 3 storm brought an 8- to 10-foot storm surge that submerged parts of the city. The storm was blamed for 74 deaths.

The city was built between the half-mile-wide Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain, half the size of the state of Rhode Island.

Billions of dollars worth of walls, levees, pumps and canals keep the water at bay. The system and the terrain's natural bowl shape can conspire to trap water in the city after a flood.

"We're talking about an incredible environmental disaster," said Ivor van Heerden, deputy director of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center.

Getting out while they can

New Orleans resident Jane Bartlett, 53, and her son frantically packed up their dog, important papers and pictures Sunday afternoon.

They were headed out of town, unsure where they might end up.

"We were hoping it would stay Category 3 or 4," said Bartlett, a longtime resident who never before felt compelled to flee a hurricane. "When they said 175 mph winds, I said, "That's it. Let's go."'

Mayor Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation of the city's 485,000 residents Sunday morning. He later called for a 6 p.m. citywide curfew.

The evacuation went slowly. Highways in Louisiana and Mississippi were jammed as people fled. All lanes were limited to northbound traffic on Interstates 55 and 59, and westbound on I-10.

Nagin also dispatched police and firefighters to rouse people with sirens and bullhorns, and even gave them the authority to commandeer vehicles to aid in the evacuation. The city opened 10 shelters, including the 70,000-seat Superdome, for the estimated 100,000 residents without the means to leave and the tourists with nowhere to go.

In a poor neighborhood of central New Orleans, a group of residents sat on a porch with no car, no way out and little fear.

"We're not evacuating," said Julie Paul, 57. "None of us have anyplace to go. We're counting on the Superdome. That's our lifesaver."

Arthur Andersen packed his car and headed out of Metairie about 10 a.m. with his wife, daughter and the family cat. After 21/2 hours, they had gone 45 miles, inching their way north in the southbound lanes of Interstate 55.

Members of the National Guard were stationed at all exits.

"They're estimating 8 to 12 feet of water in our parish," said Andersen, 55. "I don't know anyone who's staying. Pretty much everyone I know left. They told people if they stayed home to make sure they have an ax so they can break through the roof from the attic."

Not easy anymore

As night fell Sunday, the streets were largely deserted. The wind was kicking up in gusts and rain fell intermittently.

Hotels near the downtown convention center filled with stranded tourists. The mayor exempted the hotels from mandatory evacuation orders.

National Guard convoys took up positions around the central business district, and police stood guard on bridges and overpasses. A lone man sat cross-legged in the entryway of the glittery Harrah's Casino, watching the rain fall.

People with backpacks hurried toward the Superdome in the rain.

In Miami, hurricane center director Mayfield said Katrina could deliver a devastating blow.

"New Orleans may never be the same," he said.

--Times staff writers Brady Dennis, Tamara El-Khoury and Rebecca Catalanello contributed to this report, which also used information from the Associated Press and the New York Times.

[Last modified August 29, 2005, 05:01:28]