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Hurricane Katrina

Area disaster plans unaltered by Katrina

A devastating storm surge in Tampa Bay would not have the same effect as the one that hit New Orleans, experts say.

By WILL VAN SANT and KEVIN GRAHAM
Published September 2, 2005

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Hurricane Katrina's storm surge - the wall of water it pushed ashore - was 29 feet, the highest ever measured in the United States, scientists say.

Does that record change the view of emergency officials in the Tampa Bay area, who tell residents to evacuate low-lying areas and mobile homes and to seek nearby shelter in sturdy structures on high ground?

With day after day of news about New Orleans' descent into a sink of fetid floodwater, some may wonder if a new strategy is needed. But Pinellas and Hillsborough emergency officials have no plans to alter their position and start advocating the full-scale evacuation of the counties when storms approach.

Unlike New Orleans, they point out, land here is not below sea level. According to Pinellas emergency management director Gary Vickers, a massive storm surge of 25 feet would submerge half of Pinellas. But the other half would remain dry.

Also, such a massive flood of seawater, a worst-case scenario studied by the National Hurricane Center, would substantially recede within six to 12 hours, Vickers said.

Vickers acknowledges that Pinellas does not have sufficient shelter space for all those who might be affected by such massive flooding. But experience has taught him that urging people to find high ground in the county rather than to flee is the prudent choice.

The key is planning. Identify the friend or family member who has housing on elevated land and develop a shelter plan, Vickers said.

In 1985, officials ordered an evacuation of Pinellas as Hurricane Elena approached. The result was traffic backups and chaos that exposed residents to even greater harm, Vickers said. Last year's Hurricane Charley also offers lessons. People were told to leave the coast and move inland, he said, only to confront the storm in and around Orlando.

University of South Florida oceanographer Robert Weisberg has studied Tampa Bay's vulnerability to storm surge. He said there are advantages to seeking shelter on high ground and to fleeing inland.

However, Weisberg said he agreed with Vickers that staying put in Pinellas is probably the best approach.

"They are probably better off doing that than leaving," Weisberg said. "There are all kinds of potential problems associated with evacuation."

Larry Gispert, emergency manager in Hillsborough County, was direct. He said it's impossible to evacuate more than a million people from this area, and his best advice remains simply to get out of the areas vulnerable to a storm surge.

"We do not have the ability, nor will the public cooperate, to evacuate over a million people and send them to Atlanta. That just doesn't happen," Gispert said. "If they get away from the surge zones and they hunker down in nonsurge zones, they will live."

He said there were some people in the path of Hurricane Katrina who ignored the order to evacuate, and there are residents in Tampa Bay who would likely do the same.

"It was smart for them to evacuate and those who didn't paid the ultimate price," Gispert said of Katrina victims. "If we have something similar coming to Tampa next week, we will have people making the same option. It's America. You have a certain right to do what you want to do."

By the way, Katrina's record storm surge was estimated by Dr. Stephen Leatherman, known in happier times as "Dr. Beach" for his national rankings of the best ones in America, but he is also director of the International Hurricane Research Center at Florida International University. He said the peak surge was at Bay St. Louis, Miss.

The old record was the 22-foot storm surge of Hurricane Camille, which struck in 1969 near Pass Christian, Miss., a few miles east of Bay St. Louis.

[Last modified September 2, 2005, 02:15:35]