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GOP's storm warning

By ADAM C. SMITH
Published September 11, 2005

If you're a Florida Republican looking at the political landscape in 2006, you've got to be thrilled, right?

Pundits are starting to question whether Florida is even much of a swing state any more. Democrats threw almost everything they had into Florida in 2004, and President Bush won handily. The lavishly bankrolled liberal groups that sent armies across Florida to mobilize Democrats won't be around in 2006. Democratic turnout usually dips dramatically in a nonpresidential election year.

Polls keep showing Florida's lone Democrat in statewide office, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, with lukewarm support heading into the 2006 election. Three little-known Democrats are vying for governor, while the Republicans have two contenders with statewide stature and already big campaign accounts.

But you might be surprised how many savvy Republicans are worried.

Even before the federal response to Hurricane Katrina prompted a torrent of criticism directed at President Bush, some of Florida's most prominent elected Republicans and strategists privately fretted about the environment for the next election.

Since World War II, voters usually have punished the president's party in midterm elections, especially in the sixth year of a presidency. Some Republicans see a potential perfect storm brewing against them nationally and perhaps especially in Florida:

Iraq looks messier and messier. Gas prices have soared. The president's controversial plans for overhauling Social Security give Democrats a big cudgel to hammer Republicans among seniors. Many seniors are likely to find the new Medicare prescription drug benefit to be far more confusing and less generous than expected.

The enormously unpopular Republican-led efforts to keep Terri Schiavo alive struck such a chord that some strategists believe it may have done lasting damage to Republicans. The White House and GOP-controlled Congress are reopening the volatile issue of drilling for oil and natural gas. Meanwhile, controversial U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris has emerged as the likely Republican nominee to take on Nelson, and many Republicans see her hurting candidates up and down the ticket.

For Republicans nationwide, a nasty political stew is already starting to boil over into Florida.

"I don't know anybody in Washington or in Tallahassee who wasn't worried about '06 - and that was even before this storm hit," said former U.S. Rep. Joe Scarborough of Pensacola, the Republican MSNBC personality whom the White House tried to recruit to run for the Senate.

He has told Republican friends mulling congressional bids to be wary: "2006 is probably going to be a lot like 1986, when there was a Democratic tide."

With Katrina, the question is not whether the president and his party have been damaged but how long the damage lasts. Republicans have bashed Democrats for shortcomings in governing and keeping America safe. A president and party that insisted Democrats missed the lessons of 9/11 now have to explain how they managed to look flat-footed in responding to a widely anticipated catastrophe.

Florida, battered by hurricanes more than any other state over the past 150 years, is particularly sensitive to doubts about disaster preparedness. One could almost hear the heaves of relief from Karl Rove's office when, after days of silence, Gov. Jeb Bush last week finally jumped into the aggressive public relations war over Katrina. The governor blamed the locals in Louisiana for failing to prepare.

"If we didn't do our part, no amount of work by FEMA could have overcome that lack of preparation," said Gov. Bush, who earned accolades for his own leadership during four hurricanes in 2004.

The president's approval ratings had already hit an all-time low before Katrina hit. Now the devastation is threatening to derail his second-term agenda while calling into question his administration's post-9/11 planning and preparation.

In the last two elections, the terrorist threat helped shield Republican incumbents from criticism. Katrina, Democrats hope, will peel back that shield. The grim photos and TV images from the northern Gulf Coast also could put the spot back onto a Democratic strength: domestic issues.

"The Republicans have had real problems on the domestic front that they've been able to hide behind 9/11," said Democratic pollster Dave Beattie, whose clients include Nelson and gubernatorial candidate Scott Maddox. "This brings back those problems in a very graphic way. It brings up a discussion about rich and poor in this country that the Republicans really don't want to have."

Publicly, most Republican political operators downplay the concerns and note how much can change in a year. Privately, many of them say something different.

Their fearful scenario: In the Republican gubernatorial primary, Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher and Attorney General Charlie Crist are raising so many millions of dollars, it's inevitable they will spend much of it savaging each other and weakening the ultimate nominee. In the post-Jeb Bush era, neither Republican candidate is a proven true-blue social conservative sure to mobilize the base.

Factor in all the issues hurting Bush lately, and Democrats in Florida could be better positioned than they've been in years.

Adam Goodman, Tampa-based media consultant to Katherine Harris and a host of other Republican candidates in Florida this cycle, acknowledged that most Republican strategists are concerned about the 2006 landscape. But Republicans have institutionalized advantages.

"There might not be a Bush on the ballot in 2006, but the Bush legacy of really building an Election Day machine will be on full display," Goodman predicted.

Meanwhile, there's little sign yet that Florida Democrats are ready to take advantage of the GOP vulnerabilities in 2006.

In the governor's race, no clear Democratic frontrunner has emerged. U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa gives a vanilla stump speech loaded with cliches from past failed Democratic campaigns: He'll fight for every Floridian and put school kids ahead of special interests. The basic Scott Maddox message is that he can give a thundering partisan speech. Most Republicans I talk to see state Sen. Rod Smith of Alachua as their biggest threat. Smith's inspiring message? He can win.

Republicans are setting the table for Democrats to shift Florida's political landscape dramatically. Anything but certain, though, is whether Democrats can take advantage.

"The stars are aligned," said Democratic consultant Robin Rorapaugh. "But Democrats need a candidate with a message."

-- Adam C. Smith can be reached at 727 893-8241 or adam@sptimes.com

[Last modified September 11, 2005, 09:33:02]