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Tampa Bay - a haven from storms?

People give varying reasons the area has evaded direct hits from hurricanes for 84 years. But they all agree the area is lucky.

By TOM ZUCCO
Published September 23, 2005

The theories range from divine intervention because of Saint in ""St. Petersburg" to a spirit of goodwill left behind by the Tocobagas, an Indian tribe found living around Tampa Bay when explorers arrived in the 1500s.

People in prayer groups who have been working overtime lately also claim responsibility.

Since 1921, when a hurricane slammed into the Tampa Bay area, we have not borne a direct hit.

Last year's Hurricane Charley was pointed right at us, but it took an eleventh hour turn to the east and hit 75 miles south in Charlotte County.

In the past 14 months, seven hurricanes, including Rita, have hit or passed near Florida. But aside from some flooding and power outages, the bay area was spared a major disaster.

So why has Tampa Bay escaped a direct hit from a major hurricane for the past 84 years?

"It's definitely because of the guardian angels," said Tami Schofield, who was working behind the bar at the Ka'Tiki on Sunset Beach in Treasure Island Thursday. "We are blessed. Somebody is watching out for us."

"Blessed" is a relative term.

Last year, hurricanes Jeanne and Frances delivered a one-two, wind-rain punch.

Both had been downgraded to tropical storms by the time they arrived.

Tropical Storm Josephine caused more flooding in the bay area than any recent storm when it passed by to the north in 1996, and hurricanes Ivan, Dennis, Katrina and Rita, which all passed well to the west, also caused varing degrees of flooding.

But a direct hit hasn't occurred since 1921, when a Category 3 storm hit the Tarpon Springs area with winds of more than 100 mph.

As it moved inland on a northeast heading, the storm's counterclockwise winds pushed a wall of water that was 10 or 12 feet high into Tampa Bay. It flooded Pass-a-Grille, carved Caladesi Island from Honeymoon Island, submerged parts of downtown St. Petersburg and Tampa, and caused at least six deaths and nearly $10-million in damage. That would be about $100-million today.

Since then, nothing major.

The people who study storms say there is no one simple explanation.

The experts agree on two points.

There is no guarantee a hurricane won't make landfall in Tampa Bay this year.

And if it does, the mostly likely month is October, when approaching cold fronts can steer the storms into the west coast of Florida.

Geography helps the Tampa Bay area. Most Atlantic hurricanes tend to hit Florida's east coast first, while those born in the Gulf of Mexico tend to hit the northern Gulf Coast.

"In August and September, hurricanes are generally moving east to west," said meteorologist Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. "So being on the west side of the state protects Tampa Bay from a lot of the early and midseason hurricanes."

Late season is a different story. More hurricanes have hit Florida in September and October than in June, July and August combined.

The threat is partly due to a change in the steering patterns, and more important, where the storms form.

"In October and November, they form mostly in the western Caribbean," Landsea said. "The jet stream and steering patterns usually force the storms one of two ways - into Central America, or north and east, to Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida."

Other opinions vary as to why Tampa Bay has been spared, but most experts say Tampa Bay's clock is ticking:

"So far, it's been by the grace of God. It's also not a question of if a storm will hit us, but when." - Joseph Schaefer, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center.

"This sounds trite, but we've just been extremely lucky. There are so many things that have an effect on where a hurricane goes." - Dennis LeMonde, Hillsborough County public safety community relations coordinator.

"This area isn't as prone as the Panhandle, but that doesn't mean we're safe. It's been pure chance that that hasn't happened recently." - Robert Weisberg, professor of physical oceanography with the University of South Florida's College of Marine Science.

While it may seem that one hurricane in the last 84 years is a rare event, it's not.

"Scientifically, we only have a small snapshot of overall hurricane activity to look at," said Graham Tobin, a professor of geography at the University of South Florida. "But people try to put things into a pattern. It's the gambler's fallacy. Good years follow bad years. But it doesn't hold entirely."

In testimony before a Senate subcommittee Tuesday, National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield predicted several more named tropical storms this year.

He also listed a number of cities and regions in addition to New Orleans he believes are "especially vulnerable" to damage from a major hurricane: Houston and Galveston, Texas; New York City and Long Island; southern Florida and the Florida Keys; New England.

And the Tampa Bay area.

A stormy end to the 2005 hurricane season would not be unprecedented. Josephine, the storm that flooded large sections of Tampa and St. Petersburg in 1996, made landfall near Apalachee Bay on Oct. 8.

And the 1921 hurricane that scored the last direct hit on Tampa Bay made landfall Oct. 25.

But as one major storm after another narrowly misses the area, some believe there are higher forces at work. It may have something to do with what Spanish explorers first named Tampa Bay: Espiritu Santo, or "Holy Spirit."

Father Tryfon Theophilopoulos has led St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Cathedral in Tarpon Springs for 29 years. He says the cathedral, named after the patron saint of seamen, has protected the city from hurricanes.

Some think the "Saint" in St. Petersburg provides protection, which may also explain why St. Augustine is not a regular target. Some credit the legacy of the Tocobagas for warding off disaster.

Others think in broader terms.

"The people in this area have bonded together and are praying morning, noon and night to keep the storms away," said Bill Linn, who bills himself as Florida's No. 1 psychic-medium. "The prayers of the multitudes have kept the storms away."

[Last modified September 23, 2005, 02:45:59]