Two more months left
By CURTIS KRUEGER and CARYN BAIRD
Published September 27, 2005
Friday is the final day of September, which means there are two months left to fret until the official end of hurricane season Nov. 30.
But since it takes only one hurricane to wreck your home, it's too early to breathe a sigh of relief. Here's what experts say about the last third of this year's hurricane season, and how the recent storms have caused them to rethink local plans:
Will the number of hurricanes slow down?
Probably not, if history is a guide.
National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield recently said he expects several more named storms this year, and said Tampa, southern Florida and the Florida Keys are among the areas "especially vulnerable" to damage from a major hurricane.
Of the 61 hurricanes that have hit Florida since 1900, 22 came in the last two months of hurricane season. Of those 22 late-season hurricanes, 19 came during October and three came during November, so October is definitely the scarier month.
So can we relax after October?
Three words: Floyd, Opal and Irene. All affected Florida in October, in 1987, 1995 and 1999, respectively. Three November hurricanes have hit the state: unnamed storms in 1916 and 1935, and Kate in 1985.
"Normally it drops off a little bit historically in November, but this is a very active year," said Richard Pasch, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center.
Have this year's hurricanes changed anything locally?
Thousands were stranded and unable to leave a flooded New Orleans because they had no transportation. That's one reason the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council will convene a summit of local officials Thursday and discuss whether evacuation plans are adequate.
Officials in Hillsborough County have been working to reconfigure evacuation routes to make sure public housing residents can be bused directly to shelters and not wind up stranded, said Dennis Lemonde, public safety spokesman for the county.
Lemonde said county officials also were working on staging areas where people can get bus rides to shelters.
Will Florida allow people to evacuate using all lanes of the interstate highways in the next hurricane?
Gov. Jeb Bush said Monday state officials have looked at the issue and concluded that converting all lanes to outbound traffic isn't possible on every interstate. Instead, Bush said, his strategy was "to create the incentive and urge people, where possible, to find safety within their own communities." He said the issue would be discussed again.
He plans to meet Wednesday with Florida Department of Transportation Secretary Denver Stutler.
When the department designed the current reconstruction of Interstate 4, enabling all lanes to be converted to one-way traffic was a consideration. Crossovers were built that would allow motorists leaving the Tampa Bay area to access all lanes.
Are Tampa Bay residents more likely to obey evacuation orders, after seeing how many people died in Hurricane Katrina?
"The more of these events we have, the more compliance you get. It's amazing how that works," said Jim Johnston, emergency management operations coordinator for Pasco County.
But Johnston said there's no way to predict exactly how many people will obey evacuation orders. He said he is willing to do anything he can to communicate the importance of leaving or finding safe shelter.
"I would expect that the prudent individuals will leave," he said. "But the doubting Thomases will remain."
How does Hurricane Katrina compare to other storms?
Roughly 1,075 deaths have been tallied to date from Hurricane Katrina, the worst since the 1928 no-name storm that hit Florida's Lake Okeechobee area and killed 1,836.
How many named storms have there been this year?
There have been 17. There are still four names unused this year so far: Stan, Tammy, Vince, Wilma. If more names are needed after these four are used, the National Hurricane Center will turn to the Greek alphabet.
--Information from staff writer Steve Bousquet, CBS News, the Weather Channel and Times Wires was used in this report.
[Last modified September 28, 2005, 18:56:38]
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