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Lucky, sure, but safe? Hardly

Disaster planners cite grim numbers adding up to this: A major hurricane would devastate Tampa Bay.

By CURTIS KRUEGER
Published September 30, 2005

The Tampa Bay area keeps dodging hurricanes, but the National Weather Service says we are one of the most vulnerable spots in America.

In a four-county summit of disaster planners Thursday, the officials charged with keeping us safe said why: In the wrong kind of storm, we face the prospect of a 28-foot storm surge. We have more than 17,000 people in nursing homes and more than 275,000 in mobile homes in Pinellas, Hillsborough, Pasco and Manatee counties. In more than 86,000 households, no one has a car.

Even so, roads could clog with as many as 1.5-million evacuees. We don't have enough emergency shelters. Many of those we do have could not survive a category 4 or 5 hurricane.

Welcome to Tampa Bay hurricane planning.

Think of it as triage: If a hurricane comes this way, the entire four-county region cannot be evacuated. But people must be cleared from low-lying areas where rising seawater could drown them. Officials said the best that residents can hope for after a hurricane is to be miserable and safe. The mood was neither panicked nor calm at the summit of law enforcement, planning, military, state and municipal officials from the four-county region. Many praised the state for proper disaster planning. But they left no doubt that no matter what the planning, a hurricane would deal this region a brutal blow.

The two-hour meeting at the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council was barely long enough to touch on major issues.

Getting out

Many Houston residents wound up stranded on the highways after they evacuated from Hurricane Rita because the roads became overloaded and impassable.

Given the numbers in the Tampa Bay area, it's possible "We would see the same thing. ... We don't have any more roads out of here than they do," said Betti Johnson, principal planner with the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Commission.

That's why emergency officials said Thursday that residents should decide in advance on a local building where they can stay that is out of danger of being flooded by the hurricane-driven waters, known as the storm surge. The goal is to get people to a place where they won't drown. In short: Run from the water, hide from the wind.

Johnson, the planner, said the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council is working on a study to determine how many Tampa Bay residents evacuated during the multiple hurricanes of 2004, and what residents likely would do now that they have seen the devastation wrought by this year's storms.

Making it quick

Hurricane Katrina aimed toward New Orleans for about three days before hitting, but Hillsborough emergency manager Larry Gispert said the hurricanes that threaten the Tampa Bay area don't give us that much notice. Residents here must act much quicker.

"Our planning is the rapid-response mode of planning because of the nature of our beast. We don't have that luxury of that storm three and four days out. It's a 24-hour, 30-hour most of the time window. ... We get everybody out of the surge area and get them to shelters and refuges. We've got to be honest with ourselves, that's about the best we can do in Tampa Bay unless God changes the way he does hurricanes in Tampa Bay."

Getting the word out

At WTSP-Channel 10, Dick Fletcher is both a professional meteorologist and a professional communicator. But he was outspoken Thursday in saying that "the past few years have shown we've failed miserably in being able to communicate."

He cited a study saying only one quarter to one half of the people who should have evacuated during last year's Florida hurricanes actually did.

"We were extremely lucky last year that we did not see massive storm surge casualties because the people aren't getting the message."

In spite of "super gizmo computer models" on television, the only way people really grasp the dangers of the storm surge, and how it can drown people in low-lying areas, is when people discuss it "eye to eye," he said.

"I personally don't think people are going to respond until they understand what's going to happen where they live," Fletcher said.

On another communication matter, St. Petersburg College president Carl Kuttler recommended that someone provide a truck with a couple hundred satellite phones that could go to key officials so they can continue to run their agencies.

Miserable but safe

St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker said it was a "great concern" to think what would happen to someone in an older wood-frame home when a category 4 or 5 hurricane hit directly.

Gispert, Hillsborough's emergency manager, said that because there are so many people living in the Tampa Bay area, "we cannot get them all out." So "the best chance of surviving" is to stay in an enclosed room in a home that's in good repair.

"We can't promise you comfort. You're going to be miserable. ... Our whole purpose in emergency management is that you're alive. If you want to get parked up on I-4 and have a hurricane come, I guarantee you you'll be dead when that one hits."

Bringing the dog

Some people are so attached to their pets that they won't leave home without them - even for a storm surge. If there is no place for these people to evacuate to, "You're going to lose those lives," said Laurie Feagans, Manatee County emergency management chief.

So Manatee opened shelters that accept pets to make sure their owners had a place to stay that would be safe. She said the county has received numerous thank-yous. Those aren't the only pet-friendly shelters in the region - Pinellas has two, for instance - but Feagans urged other officials to remember their importance.

"That's just a reality," she said. "Doesn't make any difference if you agree with it or not."

She said she helped after Hurricane Katrina in Mississippi and was shocked to see packs of dogs roaming the streets, sometimes threatening rescue workers.

--Times researcher Carolyn Edds contributed to this report.

[Last modified September 30, 2005, 01:37:04]