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Can iPod repeat revolution for TV?

Network affiliates are cautiously accepting of the new video player, but analysts are split on what effect it will have.

NEW YORK - Apple's iPod profoundly changed the way people experience music. What will it do for television?

The industry was intrigued by Wednesday's announcement that episodes of the hit ABC shows Desperate Housewives and Lost will be available for Apple's new video iPod. Episodes will go on sale for $1.99 on iTunes the day after they are broadcast.

For ABC and its parent Walt Disney Co., the bet is that the new technology will bring in more new fans of the programs than will be taken away from watching them on traditional broadcast television.

The network's affiliates were not told the deal was in the works before Wednesday, and they're the people most likely to be concerned about its effect now the iPod will join digital video recorders and DVDs as another way of seeing television programs other than their regularly scheduled times on the ABC stations.

Leon Long, chairman of ABC's affiliate board and general manager of WLOX-TV in Biloxi, Miss., wasn't worried.

He said if viewers have the choice of watching Desperate Housewives on their wide-screen television with surround sound or a 21/2-inch iPod screen, they will almost certainly watch it on TV. The iPod option will likely be attractive to people who missed an episode and want to keep up with the story, he said.

He noted that two of the three series ABC is offering to iTunes - the new Night Stalker is the other - are serials that require viewers to follow story lines that play out over several months.

Phillip Swann, president of the technology-oriented Web site TVpredictions.com, said the development will "fail miserably" and have no long-term effect on the industry.

He said the iPod succeeded for music because it replicated what people had been seeking for many years - true portability of their music collections - but there's no such demand for portability of video products.

Unlike listening to music on iPods, watching videos requires the undivided attention of users, he said.

"There's a reason why television at home is popular," he said, "because when you're watching it, you don't have to do anything else."

But another industry analyst, Jack Myers, who publishes the Myers Report, said it was a smart move by ABC and Disney to try and pioneer different ways of distributing their product. The programs most-frequently saved on digital recorders are generally the most-watched programs on TV; the DVRs haven't made a dent in their popularity, he said.

"I don't think the way to monetize it is by holding back from technology-driven distribution outlets," he said.

Two Disney Channel programs, That's So Raven and The Suite Life of Zack & Cody, will also be available for sale on iTunes.

The music video industry is also excited about the new iPod.

Apart from DVD or home video sales, music videos were long regarded in the industry as promotional tools, made for cable networks like MTV, VH1, or more recently, to Internet portals like Yahoo and America Online, for a chance at being broadcast.

But that changed this year, when Universal Music Group began charging a fee for playing its artists' music videos online or over video-on-demand services. Other companies have followed or are in the process of doing so.

The launch of a video-capable iPod and the sale of music videos and other video content on iTunes for $1.99 opens the door for the labels, which have seen sales of CDs decline in recent years, to turn their videos into money makers.

"The traditional model has been the broadcast MTV type model," said Ken Parks, who negotiated EMI Music's music video licensing deal with Apple. "We have deals in place to exploit video online with other companies and I think this was just the natural evolution of the Apple service."

While some mobile phone services have had success selling music videos to users, it remains to be seen whether music fans now accustomed to dialing up videos for free online will pay for downloading them from iTunes.

"It is a first," said Matt Kleinschmit, a digital music analyst for the Ipsos Insight market research firm. "It will be interesting to see whether or not folks pay for this content."

[Last modified October 13, 2005, 01:10:16]