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Iraq

For Iraq's Sunnis, tough choices

If the draft constitution passes, as expected, will Sunni Arabs still stick with the political process?

BAGHDAD - They turned out to vote this time, but appeared to have lost at the polls.

Sunni Arabs, a minority that had traditionally formed Iraq's ruling class, came out of their political isolation Saturday to vote in droves on a draft constitution that many of them see as flawed. Accounting for just 20 percent of Iraq's estimated 27-million people, they mostly voted no, but the charter seemed certain of passage.

The Sunni "no" campaign appeared to have made the two-thirds threshold in Anbar province, the vast western Sunni heartland, and Salahuddin, where Sunnis hold a large majority and as many as 90 percent of voters cast ballots.

But in two other provinces where Sunni Arabs have only slim majorities - Ninevah and Diyala - the "yes" vote won.

Sunni leaders responded angrily, some saying they suspected fraud and accusing American officials and the Shiite parties that dominate the government.

"There is no doubt that America has interfered in the process, since they and the Shiite government are supervising the whole operation, and since both want this draft to pass," said Sheik Abdul-Salam al-Kubaisi, a prominent cleric with the influential Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars, which government officials accuse of links to the insurgency.

U.S. officials played a role in mediating negotiations over the draft constitution, but they had no role in the counting process, run by an Iraqi elections commission.

Other Sunni Arab leaders took a more moderate tone, saying the adoption of the document was likely to leave many with a bitter taste, but that they remain determined to stay in the political process and try to maintain the zeal shown by the community in this weekend's referendum.

"The important thing is that our people went out and cast their votes, not paying any heed to the threats of violence," said Adnan al-Duleimi, a senior Sunni Arab politician who heads an umbrella of political and tribal groups.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani issued a decree Sunday setting Dec. 15 for Iraqis to vote again, this time to elect a Parliament. If the constitution indeed passed, the first full-term Parliament since Saddam Hussein's fall in 2003 will install a new government by Dec. 31. If the charter has failed, the Parliament will be temporary, tasked with drawing up a new draft on which to vote.

From Fallujah, once a bastion of the Sunni-led insurgency west of Baghdad, to restive Mosul in the north and Baqouba to the northeast of Baghdad, hundreds of thousands of Sunni Arabs braved the threat of attacks and cast their ballots Saturday amid tight security.

Surprisingly, the Sunni-led insurgency did little to try and disrupt the vote, with only a host of minor attacks on voters Saturday. But the U.S. military on Sunday said five U.S. soldiers were killed Saturday by a bomb in Ramadi, a hotbed of militants west of Baghdad, and a Marine was killed by a bomb Saturday in Saqlawiyah.

In Baghdad's main counting center Sunday, workers tallying votes were shaken when militants fired two mortars into the Green Zone, the heavily guarded district where the U.S. Embassy, Iraqi government offices and the counting site are located. The mortars did not hit the center and caused no deaths or significant damage.

But the relative quiet should not be taken as implicit recognition by the insurgents of the political process. Since the outbreak of the insurgency 21/2 years ago, attacks continued and in some cases increased after landmark events that Iraqi and U.S. politicians hailed as blows to the militants - including Hussein's capture in December 2003, the restoration of Iraq's sovereignty in June 2004 and the Jan. 30 election.

That suggests the insurgency - a mix of Islamic militants, Iraqi nationalists and hardcore Hussein supporters - is not significantly affected by political developments.

In addition, if frustrated Sunni Arabs see the new permanent constitution as sealing a political system they despise, some could be inspired to turn to the insurgency - or grow more sympathetic to it as a force trying to right a wrong.

"If the constitution was passed, the attacks will definitely rise against the occupation forces, and the security situation is going to be worse," Kubaisi said.

Sunni Arabs see the constitution as a recipe for the eventual breakup of Iraq into a Kurdish ministate in the north and a Shiite one in the south. They also object to the document's failure to state clearly Iraq's Arab identity. A set of last-minute amendments giving the next Parliament the authority to revise the constitution could be little more than academic because the chamber will continue to be dominated by Shiites and Kurds.

But adoption of the charter does give the Sunnis a political window. With the long-drawn controversy over the constitution now all but settled in favor of its supporters - the majority Shiites, their Kurdish allies and the Iraqi Islamic Party, the only Sunni Arab political party to urge its supporters to vote yes - the focus has shifted to the Dec. 15 election.

Most Sunni Arabs boycotted the Jan. 30 election in a move that produced a Parliament dominated by the Shiites and Kurds. The Sunni Arabs have only 17 of Parliament's 275 seats, when their demographics should in theory give them between 50 and 60.

A repeat of Saturday's turnout in December could change that and may even allow the influential community to become an attractive partner to larger groups seeking to form a coalition.

Differences have emerged within the Shiite Muslim clergy-backed United Iraqi Alliance, which won 140 seats in the Jan. 30 vote. The alliance has been strained by perceived policy failures of Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, particularly on security, providing adequate services and relations with the Arab world.

The government's perceived close ties with neighboring Iran have also been a point of contention, together with human rights violations by security forces battling the insurgents. The alliance includes four major Shiite parties who are not all content with their share of Cabinet posts and could seek a better deal elsewhere.

In other potential good news for Sunnis, the Kurdish alliance, with 75 seats in Parliament, has expressed displeasure at what it sees as the monopoly on decisionmaking by the Shiite Alliance.

The breakup of the alliance could mean Iraq's next ruling coalition will be made up of political parties acting alone, none of them assuming a dominant role like the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the senior partner in the present coalition.

[Last modified October 17, 2005, 01:19:13]