Forecasters caution about the uncertainties of the record-tying 21st tropical storm of the year.
By GRAHAM BRINK, Times Staff Writer
Published October 18, 2005
A strengthening Tropical Storm Wilma appears likely to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico late this week, posing a potential threat to Florida.
While forecasters cautioned about uncertainties in the track, the official forecast late Monday predicted the storm to turn northeast after entering the gulf.
Wilma is the 21st tropical storm of the 2005 season, tying the record set in 1933.
Located about 250 miles southwest of Jamaica late Monday, Wilma is forecast to develop into a Category 3 hurricane, with winds of at least 111 mph, as it moves north through the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters expect it to undergo shearing and downgrade to Category 2 once it reaches the gulf.
The storm's future depends a lot on whether it interacts with a predicted cold front in the next few days, said Lt. Dave Roberts, a Navy meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"Weak steering currents have made it difficult this season to predict where storms are going," Roberts said. "At least right now, this storm is acting the same way."
Late Monday, the storm had sustained winds of 50 mph and was moving at 2 mph. On its forecasted path, Wilma will move past the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday and weaken to Category 2 status in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The five-day forecast put Wilma about 100 miles from the South Florida coast on Saturday evening.
If it remains on the predicted path, Wilma is not expected to re-energize as it moves east. At this time of year, storms generally move from areas of warm water and favorable winds into areas of colder weather and stronger wind shear that make it difficult for them to maintain their strength, Roberts said.
Wilma will likely weaken if it interacts with the expected frontal system, a large area of low pressure moving south into the gulf, he said. The storm, though, is expected to remain at least a category 1 hurricane for the next five days.
"Keep in mind that it is very difficult to predict what a storm will do more than five days from now," Roberts said.
Historically, October is the third busiest month for tropical storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, behind September and August. At this time of the year, storms often form in the central and western Caribbean, just as Wilma did. Wilma formed a few hundred miles north of an unnamed Category 3 hurricane that hit Tarpon Springs in October 1921, the last time the Tampa Bay area took a direct hit from a hurricane. The storm moved northwest between the Yucatan and Cuba and then turned northeast as it moved through the gulf.
With Wilma's formation, the 2005 season is also primed to tie or break other records.
If Wilma becomes a hurricane, this season will tie the record of 12 set in 1969, according to the National Hurricane Center. Wilma could also help the 2005 season tie for the most storms to make landfall in the United States. In 1916, eight storms came ashore. This year, seven have hit this country.
The Atlantic Basin is in an active hurricane cycle that began in 1995 and could last another 20 years, forecasters say. This year in particular, extra warm ocean temperatures, weak wind shear and favorable easterly winds provided ideal conditions for tropical storms and hurricanes.
From 1970 through 1994, an average of fewer than nine named storms formed in the Atlantic region. On average, about five became hurricanes.
In the past 10 years, the average number of named storms was 13.7, with about eight becoming hurricanes. The 2005 season will increase those averages.
This is the first time in the 52 years since human names officially have been applied to tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin that all 21 names were used. The World Meteorological Organization doesn't bother with letters Q, U, X, Y and Z. There aren't enough usable names for those letters.
Any more storms this year will be named based on the Greek alphabet, starting with Alpha.
