Florida on alert
Powering up to a Category 5 hurricane in record time, Wilma defies modeling. Forecasters say the entire peninsula remains vulnerable, including Tampa Bay.
By GRAHAM BRINK
Published October 20, 2005
As Hurricane Wilma exploded into a historic storm Wednesday, the question on everyone's mind remained the same:
Where is it headed?
The National Hurricane Center still had the storm closing in on Florida's southwest coast late Saturday. But Wilma's slowdown on Wednesday afternoon threw computer models used to predict hurricane tracks into major discord.
Some had the storm stalling out over the Yucatan Peninsula. Others had it powering through South Florida and into the Atlantic.
Forecasters warned that the entire Florida peninsula, including the Tampa Bay area, remains vulnerable.
The uncertainty led Key West officials to order the evacuation of tourists. Emergency management officials in other South Florida counties urged residents to watch the storm carefully and prepare to move to safer areas.
Wilma fueled up on the warm, deep waters of the Caribbean Sea, going from a tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane in record time. The storm became the strongest Atlantic Basin hurricane in recorded history when its barometric pressure fell to 882 millibars.
"We haven't seen one quite like this before," said Eric Blake, a meteorologist with the hurricane center.
Late Wednesday, Wilma was about 430 miles southwest of Key West, moving at about 8 mph toward the Yucatan Peninsula. It packed sustained winds of 155 mph as a Category 4.
The computer models were in close agreement earlier this week that the storm would move into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. A cold front moving down from Canada would then weaken the storm and turn it northeast toward Florida.
On Wednesday afternoon, the agreement among the models "completely collapsed," according to a hurricane center update.
Some of the models put the storm on the previously forecast track. Others had the storm stalling in the Caribbean Sea and then taking various paths across Cuba or toward Florida.
Another scenario had the storm moving onto the Yucatan Peninsula, weakening and then moving back into the Caribbean Sea. From there, it is unclear whether the storm would reenergize or peter out.
Late Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center's official track had the storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon and then weakening to a Category 3 storm as it approaches southwest Florida.
"We are still fairly certain that Florida will feel effects from this storm," Blake said. "We don't want to overplay the uncertainty in the computer models."
Hurricane forecasters urged residents in South and Central Florida to remain alert. The storm could be moving as fast as 25 mph, giving it little time to weaken significantly as it moves toward the coast.
A storm moving that fast could easily deliver destructive winds to Florida's east coast communities as well.
"You don't want to let your guard down," said Max Mayfield, director of the hurricane center.
Hillsborough County Emergency Management director Larry Gispert spent Wednesday in conference calls with state emergency management leaders and the National Hurricane Center. If the storm remains to the south, Gispert said, area residents should expect some wind and rain, which should not result in more than a few minor power outages.
Emergency management officials surveyed area hotel rooms and found that most were already booked.
This is University of South Florida's homecoming week, and hurricane evacuees also have begun filling rooms along the interstates.
"It's already happening," Gispert said. "You can't find a hotel room along I-75 and 275."
Michelle Mair, a cashier at Home Depot in St. Petersburg, said she had sold close to 65 5-gallon bottles of water Wednesday.
That's compared to less than five bottles Tuesday. At an Albertsons on Fourth Street N, Mike Stoykovich loaded 15 gallons of water into his truck.
"I'm concerned that people will be hoarding and I'm going to be left out," he said. "Someone's going to die of thirst, and I don't want it to be me."
Wilma could threaten areas devastated last year by Hurricane Charley.
Paul Malbon anxiously watched Wilma's progress from the five-story Best Western waterfront hotel he owns and runs in Fort Myers Beach. Hurricane Charley swamped the ground floor with sand and water.
"I don't wish bad luck on anybody else but I hope it doesn't come here," Malbon said.
The Florida Keys also appear particularly vulnerable to this storm. Monroe County officials planned to order residents to evacuate today.
Tourists had been arriving in Key West for next week's Fantasy Fest, an almost-anything-goes, 10-day party. Its opening was delayed until Tuesday.
"I just don't see how the Florida Keys will get out of this without having a major impact," Mayfield said.
Wilma's barometric pressure dropped below the 888 millibar record set by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. The lowest pressure at landfall on record is 892 millibars set by the 1935 Labor Day hurricane that slammed into the Florida Keys.
Forecasters consider barometric pressure to be a more accurate reading of a storm's intensity than wind speeds.
Gauges that measure wind speeds often break or malfunction in particularly powerful storms.
But lower pressure within the eyewall of a hurricane is a reliable measure of a storm's power.
The storm's record-setting achievements were unsettling for one visitor.
"I don't think I want to live in Florida," said Betty Bartelson, a tourist visiting Marco Island near Naples from Wind Gap, Pa.
Times staff writers Vanessa de la Torre and Justin George contributed to this report, which used information from the Associated Press.